Author: openjargon

If you are looking for outsized returns and have a high tolerance for risk, then it could be worth turning your attention to the ASX 300 share in this article.

That’s because if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation, this share could be destined to rise over 80% from current levels.

Which ASX 300 share?

The share that has been given the thumbs up by Bell Potter is Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: CUV).

In case you’re not familiar with the company, it is the pharmaceutical company behind the Scenesse (afamelanotide) treatment for patients with the rare disease erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP).

In addition, the ASX 300 share is undertaking clinical trials to expand the approved use of Scenesse to more indications such as vitiligo.

It is the proposed expansion into vitiligo that Bell Potter has been looking at, with phase three data due to be released soon. The broker said:

CUV’s first vitiligo Phase 3 trial readout (expected 2H CY26) is one of 2026’s most keenly awaited ASX biotech readouts. Success would dramatically de-risk the expansion of Scenesse’s approved label from the rare disease EPP (~5k Americans) to also include the far larger vitiligo indication (>2m Americans). In the event of a positive readout, we anticipate a second Phase 3 will be required (commencing in 2H CY26), hence vitiligo approval and subsequent sales would commence from ~2030.

The CUV105 trial randomised 210 patients to either Scenesse plus NB-UVB or NBUVB alone for ~5 months. A successful outcome will heavily depend on achieving a statistically significant outcome on the primary endpoint, at least in the eyes of the FDA for serving as a confirmatory study.

Big potential returns

According to the note, Bell Potter has reaffirmed its speculative buy rating on the ASX 300 share with a trimmed price target of $17.00 (from $19.00).

Based on its current share price of $9.10, this implies potential upside of 87% for investors over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter highlights that the market is attributing little value to the company’s vitiligo opportunity. It said:

At an EV of $226m, there is little credit currently attributed to CUV for the vitiligo opportunity. A positive Phase 3 readout would likely see a dramatic resurgence toward our valuation as investors de-risk the path to vitiligo, while a negative readout would likely see the stock trade modestly above cash levels (~$5/sh) given recent sentiment.

Considering the relatively even chance we ascribe to positive/negative outcomes on the primary endpoint, the ~90% upside potential in the positive scenario comfortably exceeds the ~30% downside potential in the event of a failure. Hence we maintain our BUY recommendation but now include a speculative risk warning, not due to any financial instability for CUV (which is very robust), but purely due to the clinical risk profile that is fast approaching.

The post Bell Potter says this ASX 300 share could rise 80%+ appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Macquarie has run the ruler over the ASX-listed uranium companies, and the analyst team believes there’s plenty of value to be had.

Four of the five companies they’ve assessed are trading at share prices that equate to a spot price lower than Macquarie’s assumptions, meaning there’s likely share price upside based on their modelling.

Let’s have a look at what they’re saying.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

Macquarie said Paladin had successfully ramped up production at its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia and was also making “real progress” on its Patterson Lake South approvals in Canada.

Paladin recently reported that for the March quarter it had produced 1.29 million pounds of uranium at Langer Heinrich, up 5% from the previous quarter, “driven by strong processing plant performance”.

The Patterson Lake South Project had also had its environmental impact statement approved.

Macquarie said Paladin’s share price underperformance against NexGen Energy (ASX: NXG), Cameco, and ASX-listed Namibian project developers “seems unwarranted”.

Macquarie added:

We now see value in the shares, which imply a US$77/lb uranium price. We recognise downside risk to FY27 consensus production forecasts still exists into guidance, but investors are now being rewarded for taking this risk on, in our view.

Macquarie upgraded Paladin to outperform with a price target of $13.25.

Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX: BMN)

Macquarie said that, with Bannerman’s Etango project approaching a final investment decision and a partnership with China’s CNNC substantially reducing funding needs, Bannerman shares were looking interesting.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on Bannerman shares with a price target of $5.55.

Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX: DYL)

Macquarie notes that Deep Yellow’s Tumas project has completed earthworks and is entering the civil works phase, which could last 10 to 12 months.

Macquarie added:

Given its strong cash balance, DYL has at this stage preserved full flexibility on final investment decision timing. It is selecting a construction contractor, and is engaging with potential strategic partners on the project (including from the US).

Macquarie has an outperform rating on Deep Yellow shares with a price target of $2.25 per share.

Lotus Resources Ltd (ASX: LOT)

Lotus, Macquarie said, at its recent quarterly retracted some past production results and announced a series of management changes, with the shares subsequently falling more than 50%.

Macquarie said Lotus, which is already mining but not yet selling uranium, could need to raise capital if it faces delays getting export approvals.

Macquarie has a price target of $1.30 per share for Lotus, reduced from $1.90, which is still well above the current share price of 67.5 cents.

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

Macquarie said they still held concerns about Boss’ downgrades to resources at the Honeymoon mine in South Australia and the new feasibility study.

Macquarie said:

It appears to be a smaller and more marginal asset than was widely believed under the prior management. However, we believe this is now more adequately reflected in the share price.

Macquarie upgraded its recommendation on Boss Energy to neutral from underperform and set a $2.25 share price target.

The post Which ASX uranium shares has Macquarie upgraded? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cameco and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

After years at the top end of the ASX, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are now trading below $100.

The former ASX market darling finished Friday 0.29% lower at $99.76. That leaves the biotech giant down around 23% in a month and almost 60% over the past year.

It also means CSL is trading only slightly above its recent 9-year low of $93.64. After such a heavy fall, that level is starting to look like an area investors are watching closely.

The question now is whether this is a rare chance to buy a fallen blue chip, or whether CSL still needs to earn back trust first.

Why CSL has fallen so hard

CSL was once one of the ASX’s most reliable blue-chip growth stocks.

Investors were happy to pay a premium because the company had global scale, strong healthcare assets, and a long record of delivering earnings growth.

But over the past year, that confidence has been badly damaged.

The pressure has built from several directions. CSL has been dealing with weaker earnings momentum, guidance downgrades, softer vaccine demand, and questions over execution.

And its latest downgrade only gave investors another reason to sell.

CSL now expects FY26 revenue of about US$15.2 billion on a constant currency basis. Net profit after tax (NPAT) is expected to be around US$3.1 billion.

That compares with FY25 revenue of US$15.6 billion and profit of US$3.3 billion.

CSL is still a major global healthcare company, but the latest numbers have made its old premium harder to defend.

The market wants proof

The frustrating part for shareholders is that CSL still owns valuable businesses.

It has major positions across plasma therapies, vaccines, and specialist medicines. These are not areas where demand has suddenly disappeared. Many of its products are tied to real patient needs and long-term healthcare demand.

But the market is no longer giving CSL the benefit of the doubt. Investors want to see proof that earnings can stabilise, costs can be controlled, and management can rebuild confidence.

Until then, the share price may struggle to escape the shadow of the company’s recent downgrades.

There is also a leadership question hanging over the company, with CSL still searching for a permanent Chief Executive.

Broker views show how divided sentiment has become.

Macquarie recently set a $111 price target on CSL, applying a discount for earnings uncertainty. Morgans has been more upbeat, retaining a buy rating and a $147.59 target. Bell Potter has been more cautious, cutting its target to $100.

Is the sell-off overdone?

At under $100, CSL shares are much cheaper than they were a year ago. The 4.2% dividend yield also stands out more following such a large share price decline.

But a lower price does not automatically make this an easy bargain.

CSL still needs to show that its problems are temporary and not signs of a deeper reset in the business. China albumin pricing pressure, US inventory normalisation, and execution concerns are not issues investors will look past quickly.

Trading just above a recent 9-year low may tempt some buyers back in. But CSL still needs to give the market a reason to believe the worst is behind it.

The post Under $100, are CSL shares finally too cheap to ignore? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Charter Hall (ASX: CHC) share price is in focus after the property group lifted its FY26 operating earnings per security (OEPS) guidance by 3% to 103.0 cents, signalling a 26.5% jump on FY25.

What did Charter Hall report?

• FY26 OEPS guidance upgraded to 103.0 cents per security (previously 100.0 cents)
• This marks a 26.5% increase on FY25 OEPS of 81.4 cents
• Financial year-to-date gross equity inflows reached $6.5 billion, up $1.7 billion since 1H FY26
• Funds under management (FUM) grew to $74.7 billion, from $71.7 billion at December 2025
• FY26 distribution per security guidance maintained at 6% growth over FY25

What else do investors need to know?

Charter Hall continues to attract both new and existing institutional investors, adding 25 new institutions to its platform in 18 months. Recent capital inflows have supported new partnerships and projects, including the acquisition of a major Sydney CBD land precinct and launching new industrial and infrastructure funds.

Property Services revenue has also grown, aided by strong leasing activity—office leasing alone jumped by 20% compared to the first half. The group’s disciplined investment strategy has translated into meaningful incremental earnings, with property investments also delivering steady expansion.

What did Charter Hall management say?

Managing Director and Group CEO David Harrison said:

Australia continues to attract institutional capital as a stable and highly dependable real asset market. We are seeing increased allocations from existing institutional investors alongside new domestic and offshore inflows seeking diversified exposures.

The resilience of unlisted property returns, and inflation hedge characteristics continue to support strong investor demand, with Australia remaining a preferred destination for global capital.

Our platform scale, disciplined capital deployment and co-investment alignment continues to drive equity flows and sustained earnings growth.

What’s next for Charter Hall?

Looking ahead, Charter Hall expects continued capital inflows to support earnings growth, with FY26 tipped to be its strongest ever year for capital raising. The group anticipates ongoing demand for commercial property, driven by rising institutional allocations, attractive yields, and recent changes to residential property tax rules.

Management highlighted that the business is well placed to benefit from investors seeking higher-yielding assets, especially those with long leases and inflation-linked rent growth. Charter Hall will release its FY26 results on 20 August 2026.

Charter Hall share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Charter Hall shares have risen 9%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 4% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Charter Hall lifts FY26 guidance as capital inflows surge appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

One area of the tech sector that has been growing rapidly is cyber security.

Unfortunately, there aren’t many options for Aussie investors, so most end up using the Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK) to access this thematic.

However, Bell Potter believes there is at least one ASX cyber security stock worth buying right now.

Which ASX cyber security stock?

The stock that the broker is recommending to clients is Infotrust Ltd (ASX: ITS).

It is a provider of cyber security solutions and secure managed technology services to both small and medium businesses and enterprise customers in Australia.

Bell Potter highlights that the company provides its products and services across a wide range of sectors. This includes healthcare, utilities, education and government. At the last count, it had over 1,000 customers nationally.

The broker notes that the ASX cyber security stock has announced the appointment of a new CEO and provided an update on its performance. It said:

Infotrust provided an update to the market and the key points were: 1. Paul Timmins is joining as the new CEO and Julian Challingsworth will “transition out following a significant turnaround”; 2. Updated guidance for 2HFY26 is underlying EBITDA of c.$2.3m (vs >$3m previously); and 3. Focus is on growth and cash profitability in FY27.

The change in CEO is a surprise to us but, as highlighted in the release, the company has undergone a significant turnaround and is now entering a new stage as a cyber first technology business. The updated guidance for H2 is a downgrade of >20% and it is unclear what exactly has driven this but it is still a significant improvement on 1HFY26 underlying EBITDA of $0.4m. The focus on profitability in FY27 is probably no different and the earning improvement from 1HFY26 to 2HFY26 still suggests a much better result in FY27 relative to FY26.

Should you invest?

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating on the ASX cyber security stock with a trimmed price target of 58 cents (from 62 cents).

Based on its current share price of 43.5 cents, this implies potential upside of 33% for investors over the next 12 months.

Speaking about its buy recommendation, the broker said:

[W]e believe the outlook remains positive and we also support the cyber first strategy. The earnings downgrades have, however, driven a 6% decrease in our TP to $0.58 which has mostly been driven by a reduction in the EV/EBITDA valuation with only a modest decline in the DCF. This TP is >15% premium to the share price so we maintain our BUY recommendation.

We note the company is in a strong cash position post the sale of its Cloud & Communications business so we also see potential earnings upside from more acquisitions in the cyber security space.

The post Broker tips this ASX cyber security stock to rise over 30% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Some S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares have fallen heavily over the past year, and I think that has created a more attractive risk/reward setup for patient investors.

The two ASX 200 shares in this article are both down around 40%. That does not make them risk-free, but I think their long-term growth opportunities remain compelling.

Here’s why I think they could be worth a closer look today.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

REA Group shares are down around 40% from their 52-week high.

That is a big fall for one of the highest-quality digital businesses on the ASX. But I think the underlying investment case remains attractive.

REA owns realestate.com.au, Australia’s dominant property platform. Its strength comes from the network effect between buyers, renters, sellers, agents, developers, advertisers, and lenders.

Property buyers want to search where the most listings are. Agents want to advertise where the most serious buyers are. That creates a powerful loop that can be difficult for competitors to break.

You only need to look at its third-quarter results to see that the platform is still attracting huge audiences. REA reported record Australian audiences in the March quarter, with 12.9 million average monthly visitors and 150 million average monthly visits.

I like REA because it can grow in several ways over time. It can increase the value of property listings through premium products, help agents use more data and insights, deepen its mortgage and financial services opportunity, and improve the consumer experience with better digital tools.

Artificial intelligence could also help REA build better search, richer property insights, smarter agent tools, and more useful experiences for buyers and sellers.

The main risk is valuation. REA shares have rarely been cheap, and the property market can still affect listings and sentiment. But a 40% fall makes the equation more interesting for patient investors.

SiteMinder Ltd (ASX: SDR)

SiteMinder shares have fallen around 40% over the past 12 months.

This is a very different business from REA, but I think the long-term idea is also attractive.

SiteMinder provides hotel commerce technology. Its platform helps hotels manage bookings, distribution channels, room rates, inventory, and revenue opportunities across a fragmented travel ecosystem.

Hotels need to sell rooms across multiple channels at the right price while avoiding mistakes such as overbooking or pricing errors. That becomes more complicated as online travel agents, direct bookings, metasearch, wholesalers, and emerging AI-driven channels all play a role.

SiteMinder sits in the middle of that complexity, and stands to benefit as more channels, more dynamic pricing, and more automation increase the need for reliable software that keeps inventory and pricing synchronised.

That does not make SiteMinder risk-free. The company still needs to keep executing on its strategy and delivering profitable growth.

But after a 40% share price fall, I think the risk-reward balance looks more attractive than it did.

Foolish Takeaway

Investing $1,000 into either of these ASX 200 shares will not suit everyone. REA and SiteMinder are growth-focused businesses, and both can remain volatile if investors become more cautious.

But I think both have strong long-term characteristics. REA has a dominant property platform with multiple ways to increase customer value, while SiteMinder is gaining a growing role in the global hotel technology stack.

A 40% fall does not guarantee a rebound, but it does create a better entry point for investors willing to look past short-term share price pain and focus on what these businesses could become over the next five to 10 years.

The post Down 40%: Investing $1,000 into these ASX 200 shares could be a smart move appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX share market regularly goes through volatility, any share price can go down. But there are a few names that I reckon can deliver market-beating returns, aren’t overpriced and could be less volatile than the wider local or global share market.

I’m going to talk about three of my favourite long-term ideas, each offering a very different investment exposure.

There are three investments I want to tell you about – an exchange-traded fund (ETF), an ASX share and a listed investment company (LIC). I’d call them all ‘unstoppable’ investments and I’d love to invest $3,000 in them.

VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT)

The MOAT ETF is an excellent long-term investment option because of the types of businesses it invests in.

It invests in high-quality US-listed businesses that are seen by Morningstar as having wide economic moats. In other words, competitive advantages that are so strong and enduring that analysts think they could last for the next 20 years.

If the business is able to stay ahead of competitors for that long, it could generate pleasing profit growth for many years to come.

By only investing in these wide moat businesses, investors have a great chance at experiencing long-term returns. Competitive advantages could include things like cost advantages, network effects, patents and so on.

The MOAT ETF only invests in these great businesses when they’re trading at a good value price. Therefore, it’s a portfolio of great companies at attractive prices.

Over the past ten years, it has returned an average of around 14%.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

Sigma Healthcare is a leading ASX share in the healthcare space because of its Chemist Warehouse business and its wholesale pharmacy distribution.

Healthcare is a strong long-term growth sector with Australia’s ageing and growing long-term population, giving it an earnings tailwind.

With Chemist Warehouse growing total network sales in the double-digits year-over-year, it’s clearly got a very exciting future with both strong like-for-like sales growth at the existing locations and adding more locations in Australia and overseas.

Chemist Warehouse is already in New Zealand, Ireland, Dubai and China, with the company recently announcing it’s entering the UK market too.

As its scale becomes larger, its profit margins can rise thanks to operating leverage.

I think it could become a significantly larger business if it gets its northern-hemisphere expansion right.

L1 Long Short Fund Ltd (ASX: LSF)

This ASX share is a listed investment company (LIC) that invests in both ASX shares and global shares to find the best opportunities.

It looks across different sectors for opportunities, though it doesn’t rely on tech for its investment strategy. It generally looks at businesses with a low price/earnings (P/E) ratio and good earnings growth potential. In other words, businesses that are undervalued.

By investing in undervalued businesses and cyclical names during a weak part in the cycle, the business can deliver great outperformance when the team is right.  

L1 Long Short Fund’s portfolio has returned an average of 16.3% per year over the past five years, which is an excellent level of performance and helps it deliver both capital growth and dividends. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, though.

The post 3 unstoppable ASX shares to buy with $3,000 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in L1 Long Short Fund and VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Guzman Y Gomez (ASX: GYG) has been making headlines after the company announced its decision to exit the US market, while lifting its Australia Segment EBITDA guidance.

As The Motley Fool’s Laura Stewart reported last week, Guzman y Gomez decided to exit the US market after its business there failed to meet key financial performance targets, despite solid work by the local team. 

According to GYG, the Board remains confident in the strength and future opportunity of its Australian business, supported by a robust pipeline of new sites.

GYG shares rocket on US withdrawal news

The market reacted positively to this decision last week, as GYG shares jumped by more than 20%. 

This marked a strong rebound after GYG shares had slumped in 2026. 

Prior to last week’s news, the share price had fallen 25% this year. 

As Kevin Gandiya reported on Sunday, investors likely saw this decision as a positive one due to the competitive US market. 

The disciplined decision may have prevented a much larger destruction of shareholder value down the track.

Brokers adjust their view on GYG shares

It’s clear from last week’s market reaction that investors saw the decision as a positive one. 

It seems brokers view it the same way. 

Following the US exit, the team at Bell Potter issued updated guidance on GYG shares. 

The broker said that although the Q3FY26 results outlined comparable sales momentum, progress in brand awareness, and operational execution, since then geopolitical events have significantly impacted consumer sentiment, likely exacerbating losses expected in the US. 

The company expects a one-off P&L impact of US$30-40m in FY26, including a cash component to be no greater than US$15m. The company has chosen to instead concentrate on its core Australian market, providing FY26 Australia segment (include Singapore and Japan) underlying EBITDA guidance of ~$85m (vs. BPe $85.7m, +29% YoY growth). 

They also reaffirmed 32 net new restaurant openings in Australia, with the long-term 1,000 restaurant target unchanged, supported by a near-term 108 restaurant pipeline.

Target price increases

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has increased its price target to $24.50 (previously $22.10). 

The broker said higher EBITDA forecasts lifted its cash flow assumptions and increased the valuation. 

We welcome the US exit as a previous overhang removed on the stock and see the switch to focusing on the core Australia opportunity as more beneficial to shareholders. We are confident in the medium term Australia opportunity, backed by a pipeline of 108 restaurants, as well as the successful master franchising operation in Singapore and Japan.

Based on last week’s closing price of $19.81, the updated price target indicates nearly 24% upside for GYG shares. 

The post What is Bell Potter’s view on GYG shares after its US exit? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) share price is in focus today after the company announced the sale of its 60% operated interest in VIC/L35, including the Artisan gas discovery, for $70 million in upfront cash and an estimated $140 million in future royalties.

What did Beach Energy report?

• Sold 60% operated interest in VIC/L35 (Artisan gas discovery) for $70 million upfront
• Production royalty of $3.75/GJ nominal, equating to about $140 million over the life of the field
• Total implied transaction value of approximately $130 million after tax (~$3.50/GJ 2C Contingent Resources)
• Over $500 million in capital released for redeployment into higher-return opportunities
• La Bella 2 development well will not proceed

What else do investors need to know?

The transaction with Amplitude Energy and O.G. Otway enables Beach Energy to monetise the Artisan discovery, while keeping future economic exposure through royalty payments. Completion of the deal is expected in the first quarter of FY27, pending regulatory approval.

Importantly for shareholders, not proceeding with the La Bella 2 drilling frees up more than $500 million in capital that can now be directed to opportunities offering higher returns and lower development costs. Beach retains optionality for further developments in the Otway Basin, including nearshore backfill and offshore prospects, and may consider third-party gas tolling.

What did Beach Energy management say?

Beach Managing Director and CEO Brett Woods said:

This transaction demonstrates Beach’s capital discipline, monetising Artisan while preserving exposure to future development through the production royalty. It is also a positive outcome for Otway participants and domestic customers, with the gas still expected to be developed into the East Coast market through the Athena Gas Plant. Importantly, the optimisation of our Otway Basin portfolio unlocks more than $500 million of capital previously planned for FY26 to FY29 and enables us to redeploy that capital into opportunities with stronger returns and lower development cost. We continue to see compelling Otway backfill options through low-cost nearshore prospects and longer-dated offshore opportunities of scale, supporting our strategy to be a low-cost, high-margin producer.

What’s next for Beach Energy?

Beach Energy expects to complete the transaction in Q1 FY27, assuming required approvals are met. The company plans to redeploy released capital into growth prospects that offer higher returns and aim to bolster its position as a low-cost, high-margin gas producer.

Looking forward, Beach Energy remains focused on optimising its asset portfolio through strategic development and continues to evaluate Otway Basin opportunities, including low-cost nearshore projects and potential third-party partnerships.

Beach Energy share price snapshot

Over the past 12 month, Beach Energy shares have declined 14%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 4% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Beach Energy sells Otway Basin stake, redeploys $500 million capital appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Today, the direction of the US dollar is arguably the single most important macro variable for Australian resource investors, and the news could not be better.

The US dollar index has fallen more than 6% since January 2026, reflecting growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability, trade policy uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rate normalisation.

For BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), a weaker US dollar is a powerful earnings tailwind, and it is blowing firmly in their favour right now.

Why the US dollar matters so much

The mechanism is straightforward but powerful.

Global commodities including iron ore, copper, and aluminium are priced in US dollars on international markets.

When the US dollar weakens, those commodities become cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which tends to stimulate demand and push prices higher.

The US dollar index has fallen more than 8% since January 2026, reaching its lowest level since 2022, as concerns about US fiscal sustainability and trade policy uncertainty have accelerated the decline.

The impact on commodity prices has been immediate and significant.

Copper has risen to trade above US$13,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, a level not seen in recent history.

Iron ore has recovered above US$100 per tonne, supported by fresh buying from Chinese steel mills amid depleting steel inventories.

While a weaker US dollar also tends to strengthen the Australian dollar, partially offsetting the AUD earnings benefit for local miners, the net effect has historically been positive when commodity demand remains robust.

Current demand conditions across copper, iron ore, and lithium are among the strongest in years.

BHP

BHP is arguably the best-positioned of the three to benefit from the current environment, given its growing exposure to copper, the commodity most directly tied to the electrification and AI infrastructure megatrends driving demand.

The weaker US dollar has amplified the price gains in copper that were already being driven by structural demand from AI data centres, EV production, and grid infrastructure.

BHP reported a 31% increase in its average realised copper price to US$5.47 per pound in its March quarter update, a direct reflection of both the commodity price rally and the currency tailwind.

UBS recently reiterated a hold rating on BHP with a price target of $52, noting the company’s fundamental quality while acknowledging near-term iron ore price headwinds.

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto benefits from the weak US dollar through its diversified commodity exposure spanning iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium, all of which are priced in US dollars on global markets.

The company’s share price has risen as the combination of a weaker dollar, Chinese stimulus expectations, and rising copper prices drove a broad-based re-rating of the diversified mining sector.

Furthermore, Rio’s $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, completed in early 2026, adds a further USD-priced commodity to its portfolio at precisely the moment the lithium price is recovering.

Lithium prices have risen enormously year to date in 2026, and with the majority of that revenue denominated in US dollars, a weaker greenback amplifies the AUD earnings contribution from Rio’s rapidly growing lithium business.

Rio maintains a 60% payout ratio dividend policy, meaning higher earnings from commodity tailwinds flow through directly and predictably to shareholder distributions.

Fortescue

Fortescue offers the most leveraged and concentrated play on the weak US dollar theme among the three, given its near-total dependence on iron ore revenues.

Iron ore remains priced in US dollars, and every one dollar decline in the US dollar index tends to support higher iron ore prices as Chinese steel mills, who buy in yuan, face lower effective costs.

Fortescue shares have risen in the past year, reflecting both the iron ore price recovery and growing investor appreciation for its green energy ambitions under the Fortescue Energy division.

The company maintains a dividend payout policy of 50% to 80% of net profit after tax, with dividends paid fully franked twice per year.

This means that the current commodity and currency tailwinds should flow through to shareholder distributions when Fortescue reports its full-year results in August 2026.

For income-focused investors, that combination of a recovering iron ore price and a weaker US dollar amplifying AUD earnings is an attractive backdrop.

Foolish Takeaway

A weaker US dollar is not a guaranteed tailwind for Australian miners.

If it is accompanied by slowing global growth or Chinese demand weakness, the commodity price benefit can be offset quickly.

However, in the current environment, where structural demand from AI infrastructure and electrification underpins copper, where lithium is recovering, and where iron ore supply constraints remain intact, the weak US dollar looks more like a meaningful earnings amplifier than a warning sign.

For long-term investors in BHP, Rio, and Fortescue, the currency backdrop in 2026 is about as favourable as it gets.

The post Why a weak US dollar could be the best thing that happens to ASX resource stocks in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.