Author: openjargon

Australia’s federal budget delivered on 12 May 2026 contained one of the most significant changes to property investment policy in a generation.

From 1 July 2027, negative gearing will be abolished for established residential properties purchased after 7:30pm on 12 May 2026, with the only exception being newly built homes.

For most property investors, that is bad news.

For Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR), it could be one of the most important tailwinds the company has received in years.

What the budget actually changes

Negative gearing on investment properties purchased after 12 May 2026 will no longer be available from July 2027 onwards.

This means that investors buying existing homes can no longer offset rental losses against their other income.

New builds, however, remain fully exempt from this change.

Investors who buy a newly constructed property will still access both negative gearing and the existing 50% capital gains tax discount, giving them a clear and meaningful tax advantage over buyers of established properties.

Furthermore, build-to-rent developments and properties held in widely held trusts and superannuation funds also receive exemptions, a provision that directly benefits Mirvac’s LIV Mirvac build-to-rent platform.

In short, the government has tilted the tax playing field toward new construction and away from established property.

Mirvac is one of the clearest beneficiaries on the ASX.

Why Mirvac is uniquely positioned

Mirvac is an integrated developer, investor, and fund manager with operations spanning residential masterplanned communities, premium office, industrial logistics, retail town centres, and Australia’s largest build-to-rent platform.

The residential development business, which delivers new homes and apartments in high-demand urban corridors across Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, stands to benefit directly from the structural shift in investor demand toward new builds.

In Q3 FY2026, Mirvac reported a 28% year-on-year lift in residential sales, well before the budget announcement landed.

That momentum should accelerate as investors increasingly seek the tax advantages that only new construction can deliver.

Mirvac’s build-to-rent platform provides an additional and increasingly powerful angle.

The $1.7 billion LIV Mirvac Build-to-Rent Fund, recently recapitalised with Australian Retirement Trust acquiring a significant stake, owns operational assets in Brisbane and Melbourne and is actively developing new sites in growth corridors.

As existing landlords sell established properties to exit the less tax-advantaged environment, rental supply from the private investor market may tighten.

This may push renters toward institutional build-to-rent operators like LIV Mirvac and supporting rental income growth across the portfolio.

The numbers behind the business

In the first half of FY2026, Mirvac posted a 5% lift in operating profit to $248 million, with operating earnings per security of 6.3 cents, up 5% on the prior half.

CEO Campbell Hanan described the result as a strong half-year performance, noting:

Positive momentum saw residential sales increase 38 per cent year-on-year, with settlements up 22 per cent and a recovery in gross margins. The significant restocking of our development pipeline is also in line with our focus on Living and Premium-grade Office, and, coupled with a number of key launches and completions in the coming 18 months, provides excellent future earnings visibility.

Management reaffirmed full-year FY2026 guidance of 12.8 to 13.0 cents operating earnings per security and a distribution of 9.5 cents per security, up 5.6% on the prior year.

The valuation case

Mirvac shares have declined approximately 25% over the past twelve months, trailing the ASX 200’s significantly, as higher interest rates weighed on REIT valuations across the sector.

That underperformance has created an interesting entry point.

Macquarie has named Mirvac as one of four ASX REITs it expects to surge higher in 2026, pointing to improving residential margins, the growing build-to-rent franchise, and the budget tailwinds as key catalysts for a re-rating.

Foolish takeaway

Mirvac shares may not double overnight.

The interest rate environment, while improving, remains a headwind for REIT valuations, and the translation of budget policy into on-the-ground sales momentum will take time.

However, for investors with a multi-year time horizon, the combination of a recovering residential business, Australia’s largest build-to-rent platform, and a policy shift toward new construction makes Mirvac one of the most interesting property stocks on the ASX today.

The post Why this ASX property stock could be a surprise winner from Australia’s negative gearing changes appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

At the start of each week, I like to look at ASIC’s short position report to find out which ASX shares are being targeted by short sellers.

That’s because I believe it is worth keeping a close eye on short interest levels as high levels can sometimes be a sign that something isn’t quite right with a company.

With that in mind, here are the 10 most shorted shares on the ASX this week according to ASIC:

• Lotus Resources Ltd (ASX: LOT) remains the most shorted ASX share after its short interest rose to 17.2%. Short sellers have been loading up on this uranium producer’s shares following a disastrous quarterly update. Lotus reported weak production and a sizeable cash burn. Many in the market are now expecting another capital raising later this year.
• Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) has seen its short interest remain flat at 15.6%. Short sellers don’t appear to believe this pizza chain operator’s turnaround plans will deliver a meaningful improvement in its performance.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) has seen its short interest ease to 15%. This radiopharmaceuticals company has struggled with key US FDA approvals over the past 18 months.
• Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) has short interest of 14.3%, which is up since last week. The market has concerns over this uranium miner’s production outlook from 2027.
• Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) has short interest of 14.1%, which is up week on week. However, short sellers will have been disappointed to see this quick service restaurant operator’s shares rocket last week after it announced the closure of its US operations.
• Polynovo Ltd (ASX: PNV) has 13.6% of its shares held short, which is down week on week. Short sellers appear to believe the medical device company’s shares are overvalued given its high PE ratio.
• Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) has 13.5% of its shares held short, which is up week on week. Short sellers continue to target the wine giant despite a recent and encouraging trading update.
• Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) has 11.6% of its shares held short. This is down since last week. Short sellers may believe the buy now pay later provider’s performance could be impacted by weak consumer spending and higher interest rates.
• DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) has 11.5% of its shares held short, which is up since last week. Short sellers have been increasing their positions after the counter-drone technology company revealed that it was the subject of an ASIC investigation.
• CAR Group Limited (ASX: CAR) has entered the top ten with short interest of 11.2%. Short sellers may believe that trading conditions are tough and the auto listings company could underperform expectations.

The post These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Domino’s Pizza Enterprises and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, DroneShield, PolyNovo, Telix Pharmaceuticals, and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CAR Group Ltd, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, PolyNovo, and Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a red hot 2026 for ASX healthcare stock Vitrafy Life Sciences Ltd (ASX:VFY). 

Vitrafy researches and develops cryopreservation technology. The company offers cryopreservation devices, thawing devices, packaging, and software platform.

In 2026, it has risen an impressive 107%. 

This included a 13% jump last Friday after the company released an announcement to the ASX. 

What did the company announce?

On Friday, the healthcare company announced the successful completion of the Phase II in-vitro study with United States Army Institute of Surgical Research (part of the Defense Health Agency) (“USAISR”). 

According to the release, excellent results were achieved using the Vitrafy cryopreservation ecosystem across all tested protocols when compared to existing regulatory and quality guidelines for platelet use.

Building upon the Phase I results, the Phase II USAISR in-vitro results highlight that all protocols tested via Vitrafy’s cryopreservation ecosystem outperform the existing regulatory and quality guidelines currently set for the use of platelets

What does this all mean?

The company tested different ways of freezing and thawing platelets (blood components used to stop bleeding).

All methods passed the minimum medical standards needed for human use.

One method in particular – using 3% DMSO without needing a “wash” step – performed best.

Normally frozen platelets are difficult and expensive to prepare after thawing.

Vitrafy’s “no-wash” process means hospitals, ambulances, military units, or remote clinics could potentially thaw and use platelets quickly without special lab equipment or trained technicians.

That could make it easier to store emergency blood supplies for disasters, trauma care, rural medicine, and battlefield injuries.

They achieved 94% platelet recovery after thawing, which means most platelets survived the freezing process and still functioned properly.

They also maintained strong clotting ability, which is critical in trauma situations.

Investors were seemingly pleased with these results, as the ASX healthcare stock rose 13% last Friday following the release. 

What is Morgan’s take?

Following this announcement, the team at Morgans provided updated guidance on this ASX healthcare stock. 

It said Vitrafy has released final Phase II in-vitro platelet results from USAISR, with all three cryopreservation protocols exceeding fresh-platelet quality benchmarks. 

The headline result was 94% post-thaw recovery using the 3% DMSO no-wash protocol, well ahead of the FDA/AABB (~75%) and European (~50%) thresholds. The study is independently authored by the US Army across 20 donors and 60+ samples at commercial volumes, delivering on a core IPO commitment made at listing in November 2024. 

No FDA-approved no-wash frozen platelet product exists commercially in the US, positioning Vitrafy to address a genuine category gap. Shares trading up strongly from the $1.20 YTD lows, and +27% on the 2024 IPO price.

This ASX healthcare stock closed trading last week at $2.65. 

Current targets from brokers are hovering around the $3.00 mark. 

The post What is Morgan’s updated view on this red hot ASX healthcare stock? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There are a lot of ASX dividend shares out there for income investors to choose from.

But two of the best could be in this article according to analysts at Bell Potter.

Here’s what the broker is recommending to clients right now:

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN)

Harvey Norman could be an ASX dividend share to buy for income according to Bell Potter.

The retail giant has a well-known brand, a large store network, and exposure to furniture, electronics, appliances, bedding, and other household categories. It also has a major property portfolio, which gives the business an additional layer that many retailers do not have.

Trading conditions have not been easy for discretionary retailers. Higher interest rates, cost of living pressures, and weaker consumer confidence are weighing on spending.

Nevertheless, Bell Potter is positive on its outlook and believes it is still positioned to grow its dividend.

It is forecasting fully franked dividends of 29.8 cents per share in FY 2026 and 33.5 cents per share in FY 2027. Based on its current share price, this would mean dividend yields of 6.7% and 7.6%, respectively.

The broker has a buy rating and $6.70 price target on Harvey Norman’s shares.

Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF)

Rural Funds is another ASX dividend share that could be a top pick for income investors.

It owns a diversified portfolio of agricultural assets, including properties used for cattle, almonds, macadamias, vineyards, and cropping. These assets are leased to operators, giving Rural Funds a rental income stream rather than direct exposure to day-to-day farming operations.

This structure can make its earnings profile more predictable than many traditional agricultural businesses. Long leases, contracted rental income, and exposure to real assets are all features that may suit investors looking for income.

Another positive is that Rural Funds provides exposure to farmland, which is an asset class that can benefit from long-term demand for food, productive land, and agricultural infrastructure.

It is not without risk. Interest rates, asset valuations, seasonal conditions, and tenant performance can all influence sentiment toward the stock. But for investors comfortable with the agricultural property sector, Rural Funds offers something different from the usual bank, telco, and resources dividend names.

Bell Potter is forecasting dividends per share of 11.7 cents in both FY 2026 and FY 2027. Based on its current share price of $1.98, this would mean dividend yields of approximately 6%.

The broker currently has a buy rating and $2.50 price target on its shares.

The post Buy these ASX dividend shares with 6%+ yields appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman and Rural Funds Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Building an ASX share portfolio does not have to mean picking every company individually.

I think exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can do a lot of the heavy lifting. They can add diversification, reduce reliance on any single stock, and give investors access to markets and sectors that may be difficult to replicate on their own.

That can be especially useful for Australian investors. The ASX has many strong companies, but it is also heavily weighted towards banks and miners. A few well-chosen ETFs can help broaden a portfolio beyond the local market.

Two ASX ETFs I think could be useful buys for many portfolios are named in this article.

Vanguard S&P 500 US Shares Index ETF (ASX: V500)

The first ETF I would consider is the Vanguard S&P 500 US Shares Index ETF.

This is a relatively new ASX ETF, but the idea behind it is very familiar. It seeks to track the return of the S&P 500 Net Total Return Australian Dollars Index, before fees, expenses and tax.

In plain English, it gives investors access to a diversified portfolio of the 500 largest publicly listed US companies across all major sectors.

I think that is a very attractive starting point for long-term investors.

The US market is home to many of the world’s most dominant businesses. These include companies across technology, healthcare, financial services, consumer goods, industrials, and communication services.

For Australians, that is valuable because it adds exposure that the ASX cannot easily provide. The local market has some excellent companies, but it does not have the same depth of global technology, software, semiconductor, digital advertising, and mega-cap healthcare names.

Another big positive is the cost. The V500 ETF has a management fee of just 0.07% per annum. That is low, and fees can make a meaningful difference over long periods. The less investors pay in fund costs, the more of the underlying return they can keep.

VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF (ASX: QUAL)

The second ETF I like is the VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF.

This ASX ETF takes a different approach. Rather than simply tracking the biggest companies in a market, it focuses on global businesses with quality characteristics.

The QUAL ETF looks for companies with strong returns on equity, earnings stability, and low financial leverage.

I like that because quality can be a powerful filter. The global share market contains thousands of companies, but not all of them are businesses I would want to own. Some are highly cyclical, heavily indebted, or inconsistent. The QUAL ETF aims to tilt the portfolio towards companies with stronger financial foundations.

Its holdings currently include world-class names such as Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, to name just three.

The management fee is higher than the V500 ETF at 0.40% per annum, so investors need to decide whether the quality screen is worth the extra cost. I think it can be.

Foolish Takeaway

A broad US ETF and a global quality ETF could add a lot to a portfolio. One offers low-cost exposure to America’s largest companies. The other brings a quality-focused lens to global share investing.

Neither ETF will rise every year, and both can fall when global markets weaken. But for investors building a long-term ASX share portfolio, I think they could be very useful building blocks.

The post 2 ETFs that could be buys today for any ASX share portfolio appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Insurance is rarely the most exciting sector on the ASX.

However, a combination of rising premium rates, improving underwriting margins, and disciplined capital management is creating an interesting investment backdrop for Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) and QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE).

Why premiums keep rising

The driver behind both stocks is relatively straightforward.

Australia’s insurance industry has spent the past three years repricing policies upward to recover from a period of elevated claims costs.

These costs were driven by natural catastrophes, supply chain inflation, and building cost increases that significantly exceeded what premiums had priced in.

That repricing cycle has not yet fully run its course.

IAG CEO Nick Hawkins confirmed at the company’s half-year results that the business is forecasting high single-digit premium growth for the full year FY2026, with the Australian retail business delivering 14.4% top-line growth in the first half.

QBE similarly reported double-digit premium growth in Q1 2026 and maintained its optimistic full-year outlook.

Gross written premium grew 7% in constant currency across FY2025 driven by targeted expansion across its North American and International divisions.

Insurance Australia Group

IAG is Australia’s largest general insurer, writing more than $14 billion in premium per annum across brands including NRMA, RACV, and CGU.

The first half of FY2026 was a noisy result on the surface, with statutory net profit after tax falling 35% to $505 million.

This was largely due to a one-off $174 million weather impact from the newly acquired RACQI portfolio before it was integrated into IAG’s comprehensive reinsurance program in January 2026.

Stripping out those one-off items, the underlying picture was considerably more constructive.

Underlying insurance profit grew 7.6% to $804 million and the underlying insurance margin held at 15.1%, with management maintaining full-year FY2026 insurance profit guidance of $1.55 billion to $1.75 billion.

The board also announced an on-market share buyback of up to $200 million, reflecting a strong capital position that gives IAG the flexibility to keep returning cash to shareholders even while investing in the RACQI integration.

However, investors should note that IAG could face a claim in an upcoming Greensill court case, with the company provisioning $432 million for legal fees and claims handling while maintaining it expects no net exposure.

IAG shares have fallen in the last 12 months, which may have created a more attractive entry point for investors.

QBE

QBE offers a different but equally interesting angle on the rising premium theme.

As Australia’s second largest international insurer, QBE operates across 27 countries, giving it a diversified premium base that is less exposed to Australian weather events than IAG.

QBE’s FY2025 full-year result delivered a 21% lift in statutory net profit after tax to US$2.16 billion, comfortably ahead of market expectations, with its combined operating ratio improving to 91.9%, the strongest result in several years.

The company declared a full-year dividend of A$1.09 per share, a 25% lift on the prior year, and maintained a 50% payout ratio.

QBE is guiding to continued double-digit premium growth in 2026, with Q1 results confirming the momentum has carried into the new year.

Foolish takeaway

IAG and QBE are each navigating their own near-term complexities, whether that is weather events, legal uncertainty, or the pace of global premium moderation.

Nevertheless, the backdrop of rising premiums, improving underwriting discipline, and strong capital positions makes both stocks worth serious consideration for investors seeking quality financial exposure beyond the big four banks.

The post Why rising insurance premiums could make these 2 ASX insurers very attractive right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

One of the most satisfying things about owning good ASX dividend shares is when they increase the dividend each year.

Not only does that help protect against (or outperform) inflation, but it also helps us feel wealthier. I love seeing dividend money hit the bank account.

By focusing on businesses with growing payouts, this implies they are much less likely to cut their dividends. If I’m relying on dividends, I don’t want to see my dividend income disappear during an economic downturn.

I think the two businesses below are among the best on the ASX for regular dividend growth.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

I’d say APA has the second-best record on the ASX for consistent payout increases. It has increased its payout every year since 2004.

As an energy infrastructure owner, the business plays a key role in Australia’s economy by transporting gas from sources of supply to demand. Impressively, the business supplies half of the country’s gas usage.

The ASX dividend share’s key asset is a huge gas pipeline network across Australia. APA has regularly expanded its network over the years (with some projects currently in progress), which has helped increase its earnings and cash flow.

It’s the growth of cash flow that helps fund a larger distribution to investors each year. APA also has a portfolio of other energy assets, including renewable energy generation, batteries, electricity transmission, gas power stations, gas storage, and gas processing facilities.

With most of its revenue linked to inflation, it has a pleasing tailwind for growth.

Its guided FY26 payout of 58 cents per security translates into a current distribution yield of 5.6%, at the time of writing.

WCM Global Growth Ltd (ASX: WQG)

WCM Global Growth is a leading investment company (LIC) that aims to generate investment returns through a global share portfolio.

With a great long-term portfolio performance, shareholders can see both a solid dividend and longer-term capital growth.

WCM aims to find high-quality businesses that have expanding economic moats (improving competitive cultures) and a corporate culture that fosters that improvement.

Since the ASX dividend share’s inception in June 2017, its performance (after fees) has been an average of 15.4% per year, outperforming the global benchmark by more than 2% per year.

In 2023, the LIC changed to paying dividends quarterly and has increased the payout every three months. The annual dividend has increased each year since 2019, when it began paying dividends.

The next four dividends to be declared are expected by the LIC’s board to come to 9.69 cents per share, translating into a forward grossed-up dividend yield of approximately 7.5%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.

The post These ASX dividend shares keep giving investors a pay rise appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Wcm Global Growth. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Most ASX dividend investors prioritise dependability and reliability above all else. After all, what’s the use of a 5% or 6% yield on an ASX dividend stock if the dividend gets reduced or cut entirely down the road?

There are many dependable dividend stocks on the ASX. That’s a label I would be happy to give to Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), or Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), amongst others.

However, I think there are a few ASX dividend stocks that are able to stand above the throng. For me, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL) is at the top of the pile.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson, or Soul Patts for short, is an investing house that has been around for more than a century. Over its long history, it has amassed a well-deserved reputation as a prudent manager of capital and one of the ASX’s most reliable income providers.

Soul Patts owns and manages a wide underlying portfolio of investments. These investments are diversified, ranging from large stakes in individual shares to property, venture capital, private credit, and more.

Stunning income growth from this ASX dividend stock

This approach has historically worked wonders for Soul Patts and its investors, with the company delivering market-beating returns over very long periods of time. To illustrate, the company delivered a total return (growth plus dividends) of 11% per annum over the 15 years to 31 January. Over 25 years, that stretched to 12.9% per annum. That compares to the broader market’s returns of 8.6% and 8.4% per annum, respectively.

But let’s talk dividends. Dividend returns have always played a large role in this ASX dividend stock’s performance. Soul Patts has the best dividend streak on the ASX, bar none. It has increased its annual dividends every single year since 1998, and counting.

Between FY 2021 and FY 2026, those dividends have compounded at an average annual growth rate of 11.9%. Yes, the company is yielding a seemingly unimpressive 2.54% at recent pricing. However, if Soul Patts can keep up that kind of dividend growth, it won’t be long before long-term investors are enjoying a yield-on-cost far larger than 2.54%.

At the time of writing, Soul Patts shares are going for $42.14 each. At this price, $10,000 will buy 237 shares of this ASX dividend stock. There aren’t too many better things one can do with their cash, in my view.

The post $10,000 buys 237 shares in this trusty ASX dividend stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week with a gain. The benchmark index rose 0.4% to 8,657 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to drop

The Australian share market looks set for a poor start to the week despite a decent finish to the last one on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 58 points or 0.65% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.35%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.2%.

Oil prices jump

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch after oil prices rose on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 0.25% to US$96.60 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 0.95% to US$103.54 a barrel. However, US-Iran peace talk progress over the weekend could impact oil prices once Asian markets open.

SGH shares rated as a buy

Bell Potter has named SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH) shares as a buy this week. It has put a buy rating and $50.00 price target on the investment company’s shares. It was pleased with the company’s investor day event and highlights its undemanding valuation. It said: “We view SGH’s market valuation as undemanding. SGH has articulated a robust medium and long-term valuation creation framework at its FY26 Investor Day, underpinned by reasonable operational targets. Any forthcoming M&A activity would likely be well received by the market.”

Gold price slips

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a subdued start to the week after the gold price slipped on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was down 0.45% to US$4,556.4 an ounce. This was its second weekly decline in a row amid increasing rate hike bets.

Buy GYG shares

Bell Potter thinks Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) shares are a buy. In response to news that the quick service restaurant operator is closing its US operations, the broker has upgraded GYG shares to a buy rating (from hold) with an improved price target of $24.50 (from $22.10).  It said: “We welcome the US exit as a previous overhang removed on the stock and see the switch to focusing on the core Australia opportunity as more beneficial to shareholders. We are confident in the medium term Australia opportunity, backed by a pipeline of 108 restaurants, as well as the successful master franchising operation in Singapore and Japan.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When Australian investors think about bank stocks, they inevitably reach for the big four.

Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ dominate portfolios, ETFs, and superannuation funds alike.

However, Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) has been building a banking business that is growing faster, earning higher margins, and capturing a market the big four have chronically underserved.

What makes Judo different

Judo operates exclusively in small and medium enterprise lending, a segment that represents approximately $500 billion in addressable credit in Australia.

This sector has been systematically deprioritised by the major banks in favour of lower-risk, higher-volume mortgage lending.

Judo’s model is built on relationships.

Each banker manages a small portfolio of SME clients and builds in-depth financial knowledge of their businesses, allowing Judo to price credit more accurately and charge a premium for the service and certainty it provides.

That relationship-led model is the reason Judo consistently earns a net interest margin well above what the big four achieve on their business lending books.

The numbers backing the thesis

The most recent half-year results confirmed the strategy is working.

In the first half of FY2026, Judo delivered statutory net profit after tax of $59.9 million, up 32% on the prior half and 46% year-on-year, alongside profit before tax of $86.5 million, up 53% on the prior corresponding period.

The loan book grew 7% during the half to $13.4 billion, up 15% year-on-year, while the cost-to-income ratio improved to 48.5%, down 890 basis points on the prior year, reflecting the operating leverage that emerges as a banking platform scales.

Furthermore, in Q3 FY2026, Judo expanded its net interest margin to approximately 3.15%, a figure that stands in sharp contrast to the margin compression most of the big four are experiencing under intense mortgage competition.

Total deposits grew to $11.5 billion, with a blended cost of deposits at 0.74% over one-month BBSW, a low-cost funding base that directly supports NIM performance.

The FY2027 outlook

Judo has reaffirmed its full-year FY2026 profit before tax guidance of $180 million to $190 million.

However, management has flagged profit will likely come in at the lower end of that range after increasing collective provisions in response to broader economic uncertainty.

That note of caution is worth acknowledging.

Judo’s SME loan book carries more credit risk than a mortgage-dominated portfolio, and any deterioration in business conditions would likely show up in impairment charges before it affected the big four.

Nevertheless, the growth story remains intact.

Management is targeting a return on equity in the low-to-mid teens as the business continues to scale, a figure that would represent a meaningful improvement on current levels and rival the returns generated by several of the big four.

Judo is also expanding into regional and agribusiness lending, launching new products, and deepening relationships with existing customers, all of which should support loan book growth through FY2027 and beyond.

Foolish takeaway

Judo Capital is not a low-risk investment.

The share price has fallen ~23% year to date, and near-term earnings visibility has been clouded by rising provisions.

However, for investors willing to look through those risks, the combination of a superior net interest margin, a large and underpenetrated addressable market, and improving operating leverage makes Judo one of the more interesting banking stories on the ASX heading into FY2027.

The post Why this ASX bank stock could quietly outperform the big four in FY2027 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.