The Meridian Energy Ltd (ASX: MEZ) share price is in focus as the company secured final approval to ease access restrictions on Lake PÅ«kaki hydro storage for the next three years, a move set to bolster the security of electricity supply through winter 2028.

What did Meridian Energy report?

• Approval granted to ease access restrictions on Lake PÅ«kaki hydro storage for a three-year period
• Improved dry-year risk management expected through to winter 2028
• Hydro generation provides about 60% of New Zealand’s electricity, with Meridian’s storage covering around 15 weeks of supply
• Permanent installation of rock armouring at PÅ«kaki Dam also approved

What else do investors need to know?

The easing of Lake PÅ«kaki restrictions gives Meridian Energy additional flexibility to manage supply in challenging weather conditions, reducing the risk of price spikes and supply interruptions during dry spells. Meridian emphasised that the extra storage will only be used if there’s elevated risk to security of supply, and that usage in 2026 will likely remain well within the five-metre allowance due to current lake levels. In addition, Meridian has received the green light to reinforce PÅ«kaki Dam with permanent rock armouring. This improvement is designed to help the dam withstand wave erosion, which will be especially important when the lake operates at lower levels, further supporting long-term operational resilience.

What’s next for Meridian Energy?

Looking ahead, Meridian anticipates using the expanded storage prudently, committing to operate within the strict guidelines set by regulators. The company will only draw on the additional capacity if there is a real risk to the security of electricity supply, particularly heading into winter months. Alongside the storage increase, the permanent enhancements to PÅ«kaki Dam should further strengthen Meridian’s ability to navigate future energy market challenges and invest in developing new renewable generation capacity in the years ahead.

Meridian Energy share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Meridian Energy shares have declined 12%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 2% over the same period.

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The post Meridian Energy gets green light to expand Lake PÅ«kaki storage appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Vault Minerals meets guidance as growth projects advance
• Suncorp reveals FY27 reinsurance plans and FY26 guidance update
• PEXA Group responds to IPART draft service fee review
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) share price is in focus after the company reported Q4 gold production of 89,338 ounces, bringing its FY26 output to 336,540 ounces and meeting full-year guidance. Vault also highlighted a strong cash generation of $219 million in the quarter, strengthening its balance sheet.

What did Vault Minerals report?

• Q4 gold production: 89,338 ounces
• Full-year FY26 gold production: 336,540 ounces (14% increase quarter-on-quarter)
• Q4 gold sales: 87,922 ounces; FY26 sales: 334,901 ounces
• Underlying free cash flow: $219 million in Q4
• Cash and bullion at year end: $842 million, with no debt and fully unhedged
• Maiden dividend and share buyback returned $74.3 million to shareholders in FY26

What else do investors need to know?

Vault completed Stage 1 of its King of the Hills (KoTH) processing upgrade on time and on budget in March 2026. The new crushing circuit is already running above its 8 million tonnes per annum target, with Stage 2 now 71% complete and tracking ahead of schedule for a planned September 2026 completion. Underground development at the Sugar Zone operation resumed at the start of July, following the approval of a Closure Plan Amendment. These development activities will support a targeted processing plant restart in early FY28.

What’s next for Vault Minerals?

Looking ahead, Vault plans to ramp up underground works at the Sugar Zone in FY27, generating ore stockpiles and waste rock for site construction. With a strong cash position and all gold hedges extinguished, the company sees itself well placed to deliver its ongoing growth strategy across its operational portfolio. Completion of the KoTH processing upgrades in the coming months remains a key operational milestone, aimed at increasing site capacity by 50% and reinforcing Vault’s presence as a regional leader.

Vault Minerals share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Vault Minerals shares have risen 60%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Vault Minerals meets guidance as growth projects advance appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Meridian Energy gets green light to expand Lake PÅ«kaki storage
• Suncorp reveals FY27 reinsurance plans and FY26 guidance update
• PEXA Group responds to IPART draft service fee review
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX 200 sector that outperformed the benchmark 7 to 1 in FY26. Can it keep delivering?

One sector on the ASX delivered a result in FY26 that left every other sector in its wake.

Strong commodities growth contributed to the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) rising 47% in FY26.

This led to the materials sector outperforming the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) (including dividends) by a staggering 7 to 1. 

Gold miners, copper producers, and lithium names all contributed to a sector-wide run that rewarded investors who stayed patient through a difficult FY25. 

The question now is whether the conditions that drove that performance will remain in place heading into FY27.

Why the ASX materials sector outperformed so heavily

Three forces combined to drive the sector’s extraordinary FY26 performance. 

First, gold surged above US$5,400 an ounce at its peak. This delivered extraordinary returns to ASX gold miners that dominate the materials sector’s top performers list. 

Second, copper hit record highs above US$13,000 per tonne as AI data centre construction, electric vehicle adoption, and grid infrastructure investment drove a demand surge.

Third, lithium prices recovered strongly after a brutal two-year downturn, with spodumene prices rising approximately 196% over the twelve months to May 2026. This lifted ASX lithium producers from the bottom of performance tables to some of the strongest performers on the ASX. 

All three of those tailwinds are still present to varying degrees as FY27 begins. But the easy gains from the initial recovery move are mostly behind investors now. 

Let’s take a look at some ASX materials stocks that have benefited from these tailwinds.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP): Copper was a standout, but the Jansen setback is a reminder

BHP had one of the most remarkable FY26s in its long history.

For the first time in 136 years, copper earnings exceeded iron ore contributions in the first half of FY26. This came as the copper price surge translated directly into record revenue for BHP’s Chilean and South Australian copper operations.  

BHP shares hit an all-time high of $59.78 in May before pulling back amid concerns about Simandou iron ore supply and a Jansen potash cost blowout.

Yet the long-term copper thesis remains intact.

BHP plans to grow copper-equivalent production at 3% to 4% per year through 2035, adding to what is already one of the world’s most valuable copper portfolios. 

However, the Jansen impairment of approximately US$2.3 billion is a setback. Heading into FY27, investors should weigh that capital discipline concern against the undeniably strong commodity exposure BHP brings.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS): the lithium recovery still has room to run

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), formerly Pilbara Minerals, was one of the standout performers of the FY26 materials recovery.

Shares surged strongly through FY26, with the company delivering a 241% EBITDA surge in its first-half FY26 result. This came as the broader lithium price recovery flowed directly through to the bottom line.

The lithium price story for FY27 depends heavily on whether EV demand continues to grow at the pace required to absorb new supply coming online from African and South American deposits.

Most lithium analysts remain positive on the medium-term price trajectory. But the near-term uncertainty is higher than it was in FY26 when the recovery was more linear.

PLS remains the largest and most liquid pure-play lithium exposure on the ASX, This makes the company the default choice for investors who want direct lithium price sensitivity in FY27 without the stock-specific risks of smaller producers.

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR): a higher-risk bet on lithium prices and operational ramp-up

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) offers a different and higher-risk version of the same lithium theme.

Unlike PLS, which is an established producer with a long operational history, Liontown is still in the early stages of ramping up its Kathleen Valley lithium mine in Western Australia following first production in mid-2024.

That ramp-up risk means Liontown’s performance in FY27 will depend not just on the lithium price, but on whether the company can hit its own production targets.

Liontown shares gained 197% in 2025 and continued to deliver for investors who held through FY26 as lithium prices recovered. But the operational risk at Kathleen Valley should not be ignored by investors considering a position.

The bull case is straightforward: if lithium prices hold above US$1,000 per tonne and Kathleen Valley continues to ramp toward its nameplate capacity, Liontown becomes a materially more profitable business in FY27 than it was in any prior year.

Can the materials sector repeat FY26 in FY27?

The most honest answer is: potentially.

The commodity tailwinds that drove the sector’s 47% return are still present, but the easy gains from the initial recovery move are already reflected in current prices.

Gold has pulled back from its highs as rate-hike expectations firmed.

Copper has found resistance above US$13,000 per tonne as Chinese demand data has been mixed.

Lithium prices have stabilised but not yet surged to a new leg higher.

For long-term investors, the materials sector still offers compelling structural exposure to AI infrastructure, electrification, and green energy demand that is likely to persist well beyond any single financial year.

For investors expecting another 47% year in FY27, the bar is considerably higher than it was at the start of FY26.

Foolish takeaway for ASX materials shares

The ASX 200 materials sector’s 47% return in FY26 was extraordinary.

BHP brings the most diversified commodity exposure and the strongest balance sheet of the three, but the Jansen impairment is a watch point.

PLS is the cleanest pure-play on lithium prices with the least stock-specific risk.

Liontown offers more upside if both the lithium price and the Kathleen Valley ramp-up deliver, but carries meaningfully more risk than either of the other two.

Whether the ASX 200 materials sectors performance can be repeated in FY27 is another question. Investors should keep an eye on whether the tailwinds that drove FY26 can continue delivering in FY27.

The post The ASX 200 sector that outperformed the benchmark 7 to 1 in FY26. Can it keep delivering? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• If I’d invested $4,000 in PLS Group shares 12 months ago, guess what I’d have now!
• How to get started with a portfolio delivering $500 a week in passive income
• How Australia’s commodities performed in FY26
• These ASX shares could generate $5,000 per year in passive income
• 5 best-performing ASX 200 shares of FY26

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN) share price is in focus after the company outlined its FY27 reinsurance program and reaffirmed FY26 outlook, with natural hazard costs expected $250 million above allowance and underlying ITR guidance towards the upper end of its 10–12% range.

What did Suncorp report?

• FY27 reinsurance program placement completed, adding $800 million annual aggregate cover for five years
• Total reinsurance costs in FY27 expected to be higher than FY26 due to exposure growth and aggregate cover
• Natural hazard costs in FY26 are forecast at $2.02 billion, approximately $250 million above the $1.77 billion allowance
• Underlying insurance trading result (ITR) for FY26 anticipated towards the upper end of the 10–12% range
• Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth for FY26 expected to be around 2.7%
• FY26 investment income expected between $750 million and $800 million, down from $1.23 billion in FY25

What else do investors need to know?

Suncorp has announced a new five-year aggregate reinsurance arrangement, effective from 30 June 2026, providing substantial protection against natural disasters. The main catastrophe cover now protects losses between $500 million and $6.4 billion, including for Home, Motor and Commercial property portfolios across Australia and New Zealand.

Total reinsurance costs in FY27 are set to rise, mainly due to the new aggregate cover and expanded exposure, but this is partly offset by more favourable catastrophe program pricing. Additionally, Suncorp will release about $100 million of capital thanks to lower capital targets, giving the balance sheet a welcome boost.

On the leadership front, Steve Johnston returns as CEO from medical leave on 6 July 2026, with acting CEO Jeremy Robson resuming as CFO, restoring the executive team’s usual structure.

What’s next for Suncorp?

Suncorp will provide further detail on capital management and natural hazard experience at its FY26 results presentation, scheduled for 12 August 2026. The company’s strategic focus remains on balancing risk protection with efficiency, aiming to protect both shareholders and customers against volatile weather events.

Looking forward, Suncorp’s enhanced reinsurance structure aims to keep earnings more stable and strengthen resilience in an increasingly unpredictable environment. The leadership team’s return to its usual configuration signals ongoing continuity in strategy and execution.

Suncorp share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Suncorp shares have declined 7%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

 

The post Suncorp reveals FY27 reinsurance plans and FY26 guidance update appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Meridian Energy gets green light to expand Lake PÅ«kaki storage
• Vault Minerals meets guidance as growth projects advance
• PEXA Group responds to IPART draft service fee review
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The PEXA Group Ltd (ASX: PXA) share price is in focus after the company acknowledged a draft report from the NSW Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) proposing a 20% revenue reduction for regulated service fees, which could impact an estimated $70 million in revenue.

What did PEXA Group report?

• IPART draft report proposes reducing PEXA Exchange’s regulated revenue requirement by about 20%.
• This equates to an estimated $70 million reduction in revenue for PEXA.
• The draft report recommends fee reductions over one year, but PEXA is advocating for a four-year phase-in.
• No immediate changes to PEXA’s service fees; current arrangements remain in place for FY27.
• Potential changes would commence from 1 July 2027, spanning through FY31.

What else do investors need to know?

PEXA stated that the proposed changes are still at a draft stage and remain open to public consultation. The final IPART recommendations will be submitted to the Australian Registrars’ National Electronic Conveyancing Council (ARNECC) after this process. Importantly for investors, any changes to regulated Electronic Lodgement Network Operator (ELNO) service fees wouldn’t start until FY28. PEXA has highlighted the importance of phasing any reduction to allow the business time to adjust and maintain stability. An investor briefing will be held today at 9:30am (AEST), offering more detail on PEXA’s response and future plans.

What’s next for PEXA Group?

PEXA will take part in the public consultation process, including a scheduled public hearing on 21 July 2026 and the submission of its response before 14 August 2026. The Group will continue engaging with stakeholders and IPART to shape the final outcome of the fee review. In the meantime, PEXA is focused on advocating for a more gradual introduction of any price changes and remains committed to supporting its customers and the property settlement industry.

PEXA Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, PEXA shares have declined 15%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post PEXA Group responds to IPART draft service fee review appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Meridian Energy gets green light to expand Lake PÅ«kaki storage
• Vault Minerals meets guidance as growth projects advance
• Suncorp reveals FY27 reinsurance plans and FY26 guidance update
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended PEXA Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended PEXA Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Investors with a high tolerance for risk might want to hear what Bell Potter is saying about the ASX share in this article.

That’s because if the broker is on the money with its recommendation, this speculative ASX share could more than triple in value.

Which ASX share could be cheap?

Bell Potter is tipping Chalice Mining Ltd (ASX: CHN) shares to rocket from current levels.

The broker was pleased to see the company continuing to progress its 100%-owned Gonneville Pd-Ni-Cu Project in Western Australia.

It notes that Gonneville has emerged as the largest and lowest cost undeveloped palladium-nickel-copper reserve in the western world and a globally significant strategic minerals asset.

Commenting on recent work, it said:

Multiple workstreams are underway for the completion of the Gonneville Feasibility Study, which has a budget of $25m and is due for completion in 2HCY27. Ongoing activities include: a comprehensive 8-week pilot plant operation program to test the process route design; permitting and approvals, including the Environmental Review Documents (ERD) submission in 2HCY26; the investigation of multiple secondary funding options including with potential offtake partners.

CHN is also assessing strategic partnership and investment opportunities with several parties having commenced due diligence. Early indications on project financing are that up to 60- 70% of pre-production CAPEX could be funded with debt, including from sovereign/govt sources, due to the long-life, low cost and strategic nature of Gonneville.

Huge potential returns

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its speculative buy rating and $4.00 price target on the ASX share.

Based on its current share price of $1.15, this implies potential upside of approximately 250% for investors over the next 12 months.

To put that into context, a $2,500 investment would be worth $8,750 by this time next year if Bell Potter has made the correct call.

Commenting on its buy thesis, the broker said:

CHN’s Gonneville project continues to offer exposure to a globally significant, critical minerals PGE-Ni-Cu-Co Project in a Tier 1 jurisdiction. It has designation at both State and Federal levels as a Major Project, conferring dedicated co-ordination and support for the project through statutory approvals processes. CHN is sufficiently funded to reach FID in 1HCY28. We retain our Speculative Buy recommendation on an unchanged Valuation of $4.00/sh.

The post Bell Potter says this cheap ASX share could rise almost 250% in just 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Why Chalice Mining, CSL, Megaport, and Pro Medicus shares are racing higher

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are looking for an ASX 200 share to buy, then it could be worth considering Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares.

That’s because according to Bell Potter, there could be big returns on the cards for buyers at these levels.

What is the broker is saying?

Bell Potter has been busy updating its model to reflect mark-to-markets and appears confident its update next month will be positive. It said:

Despite earlier risk off, global equity markets recovered and posted outsized returns for the June quarter. We update our model to reflect strong positive mark-to-markets. NWL offers the highest and cleanest leverage across our platform coverage, which is one reason why we continue to favour the name into the trading update (16 July). We upgrade FUA forecasts +1%/+1%/+1% for 2026-28.

It then adds:

Our forecasts already captured the benefit of stronger markets in April, so revisions are a little more modest while our net inflow forecasts remain unchanged. We expect custodial FUA flows of $3.8B for the quarter (which usually build over the course of the year) and market movements of $6.4B. The run-rate has now improved for four consecutive quarters, although our $3.8B forecast implies a slowdown, against the usual seasonality.

Big potential returns

As mentioned at the top, Bell Potter believes this ASX 200 share could deliver big returns for investors over the next 12 months.

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $30.00 price target on Netwealth’s shares.

Based on its current share price of $21.76, this implies potential upside of 38% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, Bell Potter is forecasting a 2% dividend yield over the same period, bringing the total potential return to approximately 40%.

Commenting on the company and its buy thesis, it said:

Our Buy recommendation is unchanged. NWL no longer trades as a leveraged play on financial markets, which is interesting. Given its increased scale, we would expect the opposite, with free carry having a bigger impact than flows. A shift back into global growth assets should also be supportive. Although it hasn’t benefited from this either.

NWL reaffirmed EBITDA margin guidance despite weakness in March, and we count 23 advertised roles (quite large) skewed towards product and corporate, with a focus on senior hires. We have reset our margin expectations to 49.0%. This results in EPS changes of -2%/+0%/+0% for 2026-28.

The post Why this ASX 200 share could deliver a 40% return appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 super ASX shares that could be too good to ignore in July
• Where I’d invest $10,000 in ASX 200 shares in FY27
• Which top ASX tech shares would I buy for FY27?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a subdued session but managed to finish slightly higher. The benchmark index rose 1.6 points to 8,724.5 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday despite a mixed night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 52 points or 0.6% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 2.15%, but the S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%.

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a poor finish to the week after oil prices fell again overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.7% to US$68.10 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.6% to US$71.13 a barrel. US-Iran peace deal optimism has weighed on oil prices.

Buy Netwealth shares

Bell Potter thinks Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares are undervalued. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $30.00 price target on the investment platform provider’s shares. This implies potential upside of approximately 38%. It said: “Our Buy recommendation is unchanged. NWL no longer trades as a leveraged play on financial markets, which is interesting. Given its increased scale, we would expect the opposite, with free carry having a bigger impact than flows. A shift back into global growth assets should also be supportive.”

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a good finish to the week after the gold price charged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1.1% to US$4,126.1 an ounce. This was driven by the release of US payrolls data, which the market appears to believe wasn’t supportive of interest rate hikes.

Buy Chalice shares

Bell Potter has also recommended Chalice Mining Ltd (ASX: CHN) shares this morning. According to the note, the broker has reaffirmed its speculative buy rating and $4.00 price target on the mineral exploration company’s shares. It said: “CHN’s Gonneville project continues to offer exposure to a globally significant, critical minerals PGE-Ni-Cu-Co Project in a Tier 1 jurisdiction. It has designation at both State and Federal levels as a Major Project, conferring dedicated co-ordination and support for the project through statutory approvals processes. CHN is sufficiently funded to reach FID in 1HCY28.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why this ASX 200 share could deliver a 40% return
• $5,000 invested in Woodside shares 6 months ago is now worth…
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 claws back early losses as bank shares jump
• Should you buy property or stocks? Here’s what you need to consider

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) uranium stock Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX: BMN) has lost a fair bit of ground since the end of April.

On 23 April, Bannerman shares closed trading for $4.74. Earlier this week, shares were changing hands for $3.14 apiece, putting the share price down 33.7% in just over two months.

While that’s been a painful slide for existing shareholders, Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable believes this the retrace now presents an opportunity to buy Bannerman shares at a long-term bargain price (courtesy of The Bull).

Should I buy the ASX 300 uranium stock today?

“This uranium development company’s flagship Etango project is based in Namibia,” Gable said.

Citing the first reason you might want to buy Bannerman Energy shares today, he noted, “We believe the uranium sector presents a bright outlook as we expect demand to outpace supply for the next several years.”

Then there’s the recent joint venture agreement the ASX 300 uranium stock inked with the China National Nuclear Corporation, first announced to the market on 13 February.

Commenting on the JV Etango funding deal on the day, Bannerman Energy executive chairman Brandon Munro said:

By enabling the debt-free construction of Etango, this solution maximises flexibility and dramatically derisks the construction and ramp-up phases of project execution.

It also delivers us a Tier-1 cornerstone offtake partner on genuine and market terms, ensuring Bannerman remains strongly exposed to future uranium price upside potential.

Gable pointed out that the market doesn’t appear to be pricing in the benefits of the JV deal. He noted:

Despite BMN de-risking its main resource by announcing a joint venture with the China National Nuclear Corporation, the share price has retreated along with many other stocks in the market.

Which brings us to the third reason Gable has a buy recommendation on Bannerman Energy shares.

“In our view, this presents a buying opportunity as BMN should be leveraged to any upside in the uranium price,” he concluded.

What’s the latest from Bannerman Energy?

Bannerman released its March quarter update on 29 April.

Commenting on the progress being made at Etango, Bannerman CEO Gavin Chamberlain said:

Bannerman continued to progress Etango’s early works program during the March 2026 quarter, with key construction activities, detailed design and procurement advancing in line with schedule and budget.

The ASX 300 uranium stock reported that its site contractor workforce numbered more than 560 personnel at the quarter end, and the project’s bulk earthworks contract was 66.5% complete.

Turning to the balance sheet, as at 31 March, Bannerman Energy had a cash balance of $69.9 million and liquid assets of $12.7 million.

The post 3 reasons to buy this beaten down ASX 300 uranium stock today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Bannerman Energy, Saluda Medical, Bapcor shares
• These 2 ASX uranium companies could deliver 100% to 200% returns: broker
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• How high does UBS think this ASX uranium share will go?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have had a difficult year.

Down approximately 10% year-to-date, NAB has materially underperformed the broader ASX 200 in 2026. The company has shed billions in market capitalisation even as the bank continued to pay consistent fully franked dividends to its shareholders.

This week, Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable added his name to the growing list of analysts expressing concern about the outlook, issuing a sell alert on NAB shares with a frank assessment of the risks building into FY27.

The question for the millions of Australians who own NAB shares, directly or through their superannuation funds, is whether those concerns are already reflected in the price or whether there is more pain ahead.

What the analyst said

Gable’s sell case rests on three specific concerns about NAB’s positioning heading into FY27.

The first is margin pressure.

Higher deposit competition continues to eat into the spread between what NAB earns on its lending and what it pays to depositors.

This is a structural headwind for all four major banks, and one that hits NAB particularly hard given its business banking focus.

The second is credit risk.

NAB’s first-half FY26 result saw the bank increase its collective provisions by $300 million. This is a signal that management is preparing for potential deterioration in credit quality across its business lending book as higher interest rates and a weaker economy take their toll.

The third concern goes to NAB’s core competitive advantage.

NAB has long been regarded as the premier business bank in Australia, with deeper relationships and stronger market share in commercial lending than any of its peers.

Gable cautioned that this strength is what makes NAB most exposed in the current environment.

He said:

In a weaker economy, NAB is particularly vulnerable to softer earnings growth due to its higher focus on business banking.

Summarising his sell recommendation, he concluded:

Despite a significant share price fall, NAB valuations aren’t cheap, leaving the stock exposed to downside risk.

The numbers behind the concern

NAB’s first-half FY26 result, released on 4 May, told a story of a bank managing its way through difficult conditions rather than growing through them.

Cash earnings (excluding notable items) rose just 2.3% year-on-year to $3.59 billion, while underlying profit was up 6.4%.

The credit impairment charge of $706 million was partially tied to potential stress from the Middle East conflict.

The bank maintained its interim dividend at 85 cents per share, a sign of stability but also confirmation that earnings growth has slowed to a level that does not support a dividend increase.

The consensus analyst picture is bleak relative to NAB’s recent history.

Of the nine most recent rating calls, four are sell, three are hold, and two are buy. This is an unusually bearish spread for one of Australia’s largest companies.

The bull case for NAB shares still exists

Not every analyst shares Gable’s view.

UBS retains a buy rating on NAB shares with a price target of $48.50, implying upside of approximately 35% from current levels.

The broker cited NAB’s improving net interest margin and business banking position as reasons the selloff has overshot.

At approximately 15 times forecast FY26 earnings, NAB is also considerably cheaper than CBA, which trades at approximately 26 times.

The consensus forecast for the FY26 dividend is $1.70 per share, fully franked.

This implies a forward grossed-up yield of approximately 6.4% at current prices, which remains attractive on an absolute basis for income investors.

That yield, and the relative valuation discount to CBA, forms the core of the remaining bull argument.

The honest assessment for NAB shares

The headwinds Gable identifies are material.

Margin pressure, rising provisions, and business banking credit risk are real concerns, and were reflected in the bank’s own first-half result.

However, a 10% share price this year already prices in a meaningful amount of that negative expectation.

The gap between UBS’s $48.50 target and the current price suggests the market has, if anything, possibly overreacted.

But that conclusion depends on whether credit quality holds up and whether NAB’s business banking franchise continues to outperform its peers even in a weaker economy.

Foolish takeaway

NAB shares are not obviously cheap even after a 10% fall.

The headwinds the bank faces into FY27 are material. But a cheaper entry point, a fully franked yield approaching 6.5%, and a valuation discount to CBA all suggest the market has already priced in a significant portion of the bad news.

Investors who already hold NAB shares for income purposes have a defensible reason to stay patient.

Investors considering a new position should weigh the attractive yield against the credit quality uncertainty that FY27 will ultimately resolve.

The post A leading analyst is forecasting growing headwinds for NAB shares. Should investors be worried? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.