Up 65% this year: Are Charter Hall Group shares still a buy?

Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC) shares have jumped to an all-time high of $23.92 a piece at the time of writing on Friday morning. Today’s 1.18% increase means the stock is now 4.59% higher over the month. It is also 64.97% higher than this time last year. 

The shares have spiked over 7% since yesterday afternoon. The share price spike was driven by the Australian property investment and funds management company upgrading its FY26 earning guidance.

Investors were thrilled that the group raised its FY26 OEPS guidance by 5.5% to 95 cents per security. The upgrade reflects a 16.7% increase over FY25. The move was driven by strong investment activities and rising revenues.

Charter Hall Group will announce its H1 FY26 Results on 19 February 2026. Its management expects demand for its property funds and further investment opportunities to continue across all core sectors.

Following Charter Hall Group’s announcement yesterday, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have updated their outlook on the company’s shares.

Macquarie upgrades its rating on Charter Hall Group shares

In a note to investors, the broker said it has upgraded the company’s shares from underperform to neutral. The broker also raised its target price to $23.83, up from $19.01 previously.

At the time of writing that still represents a potential 0.37% downside for investors over the next 12 months.

“Valuation: TP +25% to $23.83 ($19.01 prior) driven by earnings changes and a higher multiple on FM (16x to 21x) to reflect the improving cycle,” Macquarie said in its note.

Upgrade to Neutral $23.83 TP. Operational metrics continue to improve, resulting in consistent earnings upgrades. However, valuation prevents us from getting more positive with CHC trading on 25x FY26 P/E (~17x LTA).

What did the broker have to say about Charter Hall Group’s earnings upgrade?

The company’s FY26 OEPS guidance is a 5.5% increase, implying 17% OEPS growth versus the prior corresponding period. The broker noted that the upgrade is driven by an acceleration in transaction volumes since June 2025. This has fuelled increased earnings across Property Investment, Development Investment and Funds Management revenue lines. 

The new FY26 OPES guidance of 95 cents is higher than previous market expectations and Macquarie estimates of 91.2 cents and 90 cents respectively.

[The] +5.5% upgrade vs our expectations follows a 3.0% beat when initial FY26 guidance was set and upgrades through FY25. CHC is trading on ~25x FY26 P/E, a peak multiple, which the market seems comfortable with currently. Whilst we are attracted to CHC’s 3-year OEPS CAGR forecast of 13% and prospects of further earnings upgrades, we struggle to justify the valuation from a bottom up perspective and get more positive, without reverting to relative value methods (e.g. PEG).

The post Up 65% this year: Are Charter Hall Group shares still a buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.