How much upside does Macquarie predict for Sonic Healthcare shares?

Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL) shares were among the best performers on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) this past week.

Shares in the ASX 200 global pathology provider closed up 0.6% on Friday, trading for $22.98 apiece. This put the share price up 7.8% in a week that saw the benchmark Aussie index close down 2.5%.

Longer-term, Sonic Healthcare shares remain down 16.6% over 12 months, trailing the 1.1% one-year gains delivered by the ASX 200.

Though that’s not including the $1.07 a share in partly franked dividends the healthcare stock has paid out over this time. At Friday’s closing price, Sonic Healthcare stock trades on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 4.7%.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

Following on this past week’s gains, what target does Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have on the stock?

What’s the outlook for Sonic Healthcare shares?

Much of the ASX 200 healthcare stock’s outperformance this past week came on the heels of the company’s annual general meeting (AGM) on Thursday, where management also provided an FY 2026 trading update through to October.

Sonic Healthcare shares closed up 6.3% on the day, with the company reaffirming that it’s on track to meet its FY 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) guidance. Management is forecasting full-year EBITDA will come in between $1.87 billion and $1.95 billion (on a constant currency basis).

If Sonic Healthcare achieves the higher end of that range, that would represent a 12.7% EBITDA increase from FY 2025.

Taking a closer look at Sonic’s FY 2026 guidance, Macquarie noted:

SHL expects a 2H26 weighting to their EBITDA at ~54-55%, which is “consistent with historical weighting due to seasonality”. We expect pathology margin dilution in FY26E vs FY25 due to SHL’s recent margin-dilutive acquisitions (LADR, Swiss businesses, UK contract).

The broker added:

SHL expects the US Protecting Access to Medicare Act (PAMA) to be deferred or cancelled, with guidance excluding the potential ~A$15m impact of fee reductions in US from January 2026 (in line with previous guidance commentary).

Following Thursday’s update, Macquarie maintained a neutral rating on Sonic Healthcare shares.

Still, the broker has a 12-month price target of $25.20 a share for the ASX 200 healthcare stock. That represents a potential upside of almost 10% from Friday’s closing price. And it doesn’t include those two upcoming dividends.

Macquarie concluded:

While acknowledging potential synergy benefits from recent acquisitions, we note margin headwinds and elevated leverage in the near term. Further, risks remain around PAMA, Fair Work decision and full impacts from fee cuts.

The post How much upside does Macquarie predict for Sonic Healthcare shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Sonic Healthcare. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.