Up 21% this year! This fast-recovering ASX dividend share might not be a bargain forever

ASX dividend share Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS) has sparked renewed interest among income-focused investors. Over the past 12 months, the share price has increased by 21%, although it has slowed down slightly in the past month.

With solid operational momentum, improving cash flow and attractive dividend yields, the wholesale distribution heavyweight is emerging as a compelling pick if you’re after passive income.

Resilient food and liquor distribution

Metcash’s diversified business – spanning food, liquor, and hardware divisions – is showing strength. The food and liquor divisions are resilient, as they distribute food and liquor to hundreds of independent retailers across Australia, including IGA, Cellarbrations, IGA Liquor, The Bottle-O, Porters, and Thirsty Camel.

The ASX dividend share also operates a foodservice component, which supplies commercial customers, including hotels, restaurants, cafes, and others.

Softer market hits hardware division

Metcash is also the second-largest player in the Australian hardware market, as it owns businesses such as Mitre 10, Home Hardware, and Total Tools. The hardware business has gone through a few difficult years because of weak construction activity. Now, it looks like things might turn around.

After a challenging FY25, analysts are projecting that the company’s earnings could increase by approximately 10% to $300 million in FY26 (and another 10% in FY27).

The latest trading update was a step in the right direction. In the 18 weeks to 31 August 2025, total sales excluding tobacco increased 5.1% (or 1.1% including tobacco). Total food sales were up 8.6% excluding tobacco sales, total liquor sales were up 1.5%, and Total Tools and Hardware Group sales were up 1.8%.

Reliable payouts

On the income reliability front, Metcash has paid two fully franked dividends every year since 2017. The business pays around 70% of its underlying net profit as a dividend, which led to a total dividend per share of 18 cents in FY25. That translates into a trailing grossed-up dividend yield of 6.75%, including franking credits.

UBS projects the ASX dividend share to increase its payout every year between FY25 to FY29. That could be great news for investors focused on passive income.

Most analysts also predict moderate to strong upside from Metcash’s share price of $3.76 at the time of writing. They have set an average price target of $4.30, which suggests a share price gain of 15%. That could lift total Metcash earnings, including dividends, past the 20% mark.  

Broker Shaw and Partners sees the ASX dividend share as a good option for income investors, but it only rates it as a hold. It notes:

We suggest holding Metcash for stable income and defensive positioning. It offers a solid dividend yield, resilient earnings and reliable cash flow in uncertain markets. Its exposure to essential consumer goods and regional retail provides downside protection, making it a suitable hold for income-focused investors seeking stability over aggressive growth.

The post Up 21% this year! This fast-recovering ASX dividend share might not be a bargain forever appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.