Lovisa vs Kogan – Which consumer discretionary stock does Bell Potter prefer?

Consumer discretionary stocks are susceptible to rise and fall with economic cycles. 

Household spending can be linked to metrics like inflation, interest rates and CPI. 

When times are tough, we’re less likely to splurge on non-essential items like electronics and jewellery. 

Two ASX consumer discretionary stocks that offer these kinds of products are Lovisa Holdings Limited (ASX: LOV) and Kogan.Com Limited (ASX: KGN). 

The team at Bell Potter has just released fresh guidance on both these consumer discretionary stocks. 

Here’s the latest analysis from Bell Potter. 

Lovisa Holdings Limited (ASX: LOV)

Lovisa offers affordable, on-trend fashion jewellery and other accessories. 

Its vertically integrated business model involves developing, designing, sourcing, and merchandising 100% of its Lovisa-branded products.

Its stock price has experienced plenty of volatility this year, and at the time of writing, is trading at $30.68 per share. 

However, as the chart shows below, shares have been as high as $43.00 and as low as $21 in 2025. 

The company held its AGM last week. 

Following the AGM, Bell Potter maintained its hold recommendation on this ASX consumer discretionary stock. 

However, the broker reduced its price target to $33.50 (from $42.00 previously). 

Bell Potter reduced its price target on the company primarily because the latest trading update showed softer-than-expected comparable sales and a need to temper earlier, more optimistic assumptions, which flowed through to lower earnings forecasts and a lower valuation multiple.

Our Price Target decreases by ~20% to $33.50 (prev $42.00). Along with our earnings revisions, we also reduce our target P/E multiple to ~32x on FY27e (prev. 38x on FY27e) to reflect the de-rating in LOV/broader peer group and our relative expectations for growth within our overall coverage.

Kogan.Com Limited (ASX: KGN)

This consumer discretionary stock is an Australian pure-play online retailer. 

The company primarily caters to value-driven consumers through its private label products, spanning multiple categories including consumer electronics, appliances, homewares, hardware and toys.

Kogan’s share price has dropped 50% year to date. 

Following its AGM last week, Bell Potter maintained its hold rating but reduced its price target to $3.30 (from $4.30 previously). 

The broker said EBITDA for the period was at the lower end of the 6-9% EBITDA margin guidance for FY26.

It also noted that while the company does showcase some stability, it is focused on the Nov-Dec period for the Australian business, as challenging comps are being tested. A path to recovery is expected in the NZ business in 2H thereafter.

We continue to view EBITDA margins as highly sensitive to the investment into sustaining the GS/customer/subscriber growth. At our revised PT of $3.30 the total expected return is <15% so we maintain our HOLD rating.

Based on the broker’s revised price target of $3.30, there is an estimated upside of 9.27% from Kogan’s closing price yesterday of $3.02. 

The post Lovisa vs Kogan – Which consumer discretionary stock does Bell Potter prefer? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Kogan.com and Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Kogan.com and Lovisa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.