QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) shares could be in the buy zone following its quarterly update.
That’s the view of analysts at Bell Potter, which have just upgraded the insurance giant’s shares.
What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter was relatively pleased with the company’s quarterly update, noting that management has reaffirmed its guidance for a combined operating ratio (COR) of 92.5%. It said:
The Q3 update was benign and much as we expected. The company continues to expect an attractive COR of 92.5% for FY25, and this expected to continue into FY26. Gross Written Premium rose to $18.6bn an increase of 6% at the headline, and excluding rate increases this is 5% underlying, or 6% excluding the $250m of US noncore run-off and crop rates.
Rate increases continue to be weak around ~1.5% in the 9m, or around 4% excluding property. This compares with 2% at the HY. The company did not disclose rating trends by geography and quarter as it has done in previous years. Using a weighted average of Q1, Q2 and Q3, we estimate group renewal rates would have been around -1% year-on-year in Q3.
Three reasons to buy QBE shares
Bell Potter has upgraded QBE’s shares to a buy rating for three key reasons.
These include capital returns, management confidence in its COR outlook, and its fair valuation. It explains:
We move our recommendation to buy on three improvements. 1/ The return of capital to shareholders, which switches the capital equation from retaining capital for growth, to writing for profit and RoCE. 2/ Management remains confident about writing at a 92.5% CoR in FY26, seeing options to maintain profitability. 3/ The valuation is much less stretched, with the shares at 1.5x FY26 NAV with an RoE of 15.5%. The share price is now in buying territory. We increase our assumptions, improving the COR ratio by 66bps in FY25, and 86bps in FY26. Our forecast EPS increases by 4.1% for FY25, 6.6% for FY26, and 0.5% for FY27.
According to the note, the broker has put a buy rating (from hold) and $21.80 (from $21.20) price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $19.25, this implies potential upside of 13% for investors over the next 12 months.
In addition, Bell Potter is expecting a 4.8% dividend yield over the period, which boosts the total potential return to almost 18%.
The post 3 reasons to buy QBE shares in December appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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