Are Qantas shares really a turnaround story? Here’s what the numbers say

After several years of turbulence, the Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price is once again attracting attention. Not for cancelled flights or customer frustration, but because the underlying business may finally be regaining altitude.

The past few years have been rough. 

The airline faced penalties tied to “ghost flights”, compensation orders over ground-handling outsourcing, cybersecurity issues affecting more than 5 million customers, and ongoing scrutiny over an ageing fleet and service standards. Those setbacks hurt its reputation, its balance sheet, and investor sentiment.

Now the question is whether Qantas is in the early stages of a genuine turnaround.

A stronger financial base is emerging

Qantas reported a 28% lift in statutory net profit to $1.6 billion for the last financial year, supported by robust travel demand and improved operational performance. The airline carried four million more customers over the year across Qantas and Jetstar, while its loyalty division continued to grow engagement and earnings.

Cash flow also strengthened, and the group continued to invest heavily in a multi-year fleet renewal program, with more than 200 aircraft now on firm order across the business.

Fleet renewal matters more than most people realise. Modern aircraft have lower fuel burn, fewer maintenance surprises, and better operational reliability. Qantas has already begun introducing newer planes into service, and early results from the updated fleet have been positive, according to management commentary.

Operational momentum is improving

Jetstar continues to be a bright spot. As value-focused travellers tilt towards shorter-haul trips, Jetstar has benefited from ongoing demand, helping lift group performance even as pockets of global travel remain uneven.

Qantas is also preparing for Project Sunrise flights, enabling non-stop Sydney and Melbourne routes direct to London and New York. Direct long-haul capacity is a significant competitive differentiator that could support yield and loyalty earnings over time.

Strategy beyond aviation

Recent announcements suggest Qantas is widening its economic footprint.

It is building a major new innovation centre in Adelaide, expected to bring hundreds of jobs, support advanced product design, and enhance customer experience initiatives for the group. The centre forms part of the broader multi-year investment into improving ground and cabin service standards.

Separately, Qantas has partnered with Airwallex to launch a high-yield treasury product for business customers, expanding the value proposition of the Qantas Business Money platform. This aligns with the company’s lucrative loyalty ecosystem, which has long been one of its most resilient profit engines.

A turnaround is possible — but it requires execution

At roughly 9 times earnings and a dividend yield near the mid-4% range, Qantas trades at a valuation that already prices in some risks. For long-term investors, this can create an interesting setup: if the airline grows earnings consistently while sentiment improves, the combination of profit growth and potential multiple expansion can be powerful.

Still, the road back to “national icon” status is not short or simple. Cost pressures remain a risk, global travel cycles can shift quickly, and competitive dynamics must be monitored closely. 

Qantas must deliver sustained operational improvements, rebuild trust with customers, and maintain discipline through its capital investment cycle.

Foolish Takeaway

There are early signs that Qantas may finally be on a more stable ascent. Profits are improving, fleet renewal is underway, customer-facing investments are accelerating, and the loyalty and Jetstar divisions continue to contribute strongly. Valuation support gives the airline some breathing room.

Whether this becomes a full turnaround story depends on what Qantas does next. If management executes well, the next chapter could look very different from the last.

The post Are Qantas shares really a turnaround story? Here’s what the numbers say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.