70% of institutional investors expect gold price to rise in 2026

What an astounding year for gold, with the commodity price rising by more than 60% to above US$4,200 per ounce in 2025.

And that was after a 27% rise in 2024, which at the time was gold’s best annual performance since 2010.

The gold price reached an all-time high of US$4,381.58 per ounce in October after a phenomenal two-year run.

But can it go even further?

Experts seem to think so, with a Goldman Sachs poll revealing a high level of confidence among institutional investors.

Before we get into the poll results, let’s recap what’s happened to the gold price this year.

Why did the gold price rip in 2025?

Strong and continuing structural demand from central banks created an incredible tailwind for the gold price this year.

Goldman Sachs Research analyst, Lina Thomas, estimates that central banks have increased their gold purchases by about 5x since 2022.

The catalyst was Russia’s foreign-currency reserves being frozen following its invasion of Ukraine.

This year, global concern about the reliability of the US dollar as the reserve currency has encouraged further hoarding of gold.

Meanwhile, investors have piled into ASX gold shares and gold ETFs, pushing their share and unit prices to new heights.

This year, the S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) has surged 107% versus a 5% bump for the S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO).

The biggest gold mining share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), is up 75% to $27.11 per share.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price has soared 143% to $11.75.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares are up 130% to $138.76.

Among the gold ETFs, Betashares Global Gold Miners Currency Hedged ETF (ASX: MNRS) has rocketed 136% to $14.70 per unit.

The VanEck Gold Miners AUD ETF (ASX: GDX) is up 127% to $125.79 per unit.

Insto investors confident gold can go further in 2026

Goldman Sachs conducted a poll of 900 institutional clients from 12 to 14 November.

The broker found almost 70% of investors expect the gold price to exceed US$4,500 per ounce by the end of next year.

More than one in three investors — or 36% — anticipate the gold price exceeding US$5,000 per ounce by this time next year.

About 22% of investors expect the gold price to finish 2026 somewhere between US$4,000 and $US4,500 per ounce.

Only a very small portion of insto investors were bearish on the gold price.

About 6% expect gold to fall to between US$3,500 and $US4,000 per ounce, and 3% predict it will go below US$3,500 per ounce.

The investors cited central bank buying (38%) and fiscal concerns (27%) as the likely primary drivers of the gold price next year.

Russel Chesler, VanEck’s Head of Investments and Capital Markets, says there is always a place for gold in investment portfolios.

In an article, Chesler said:

Unlike other assets, gold is not tied to corporate earnings, interest rate policies or government fiscal decisions.

It moves to the beat of its own drum, providing valuable diversification.

Gold, we think, has an important role to play in portfolios.

The post 70% of institutional investors expect gold price to rise in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.