Macquarie names best and worst ASX stocks to buy in a rising interest rate environment

For much of this year experts and analysts were tipping interest rates to decline throughout the year. But with RBA whispers changing in recent weeks, the team at Macquarie has released updated guidance on what ASX stocks to target should interest rates go up. 

Economists say the next cash rate movement will be higher, after worse than anticipated October inflation has all but killed off the prospect of a further rate cut.

Meanwhile, Westpac has weighed in that it expects the cash rate to hold steady at this month’s RBA meeting. 

As a refresher, the cash rate in Australia is set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and acts as the benchmark interest rate for the economy. 

Changes in Australia’s cash rate influence ASX stocks by affecting borrowing costs, investor preferences, and economic activity, with rate hikes generally pressuring share prices (but not always). 

Macquarie said we are increasingly closer to the beginning of rate hikes. 

Hikes are a headwind for stocks, as they impact valuations today and earnings tomorrow.

What is Macquarie’s view?

The team at Macquarie said in a report released last week that with rising risk, the next move by the RBA is a hike. It reviewed asset and sector rotation ahead of past hiking cycles.

Just two weeks ago, we suggested the RBA was likely on hold, with hikes possibly starting in 2H CY26 as part of a global pivot due to stronger growth. With the latest core inflation print above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%, the risk of hikes has increased.

Macquarie said this risk is not unique to Australia, as 6 of 10 developed markets it tracks have core inflation of at least 3%. 

It reinforced that it does not see this as a stagflation scenario, as higher inflation is partly due to stronger growth and the unemployment rate is still relatively low (albeit trending up slowly).

Sectors to favour/avoid

Macquarie said late cycle sectors tend to outperform in the lead up to hikes. 

The analysis suggests favouring resources, because they benefit from stronger growth, protect against inflation, and are less hurt by valuation drops when bond yields rise. 

Small resources have performed especially well in past cycles, and basic materials, transport, banks, and financial services also tend to outperform before the first RBA rate hike.

On the flip side, the team at Macquarie said cyclicals like media, retail and discretionary often underperform in the lead up to hikes as the market starts to anticipate the best has passed. 

We prefer US consumer cyclicals given potential for more Fed cuts. REITs and Defensives also tend to underperform ahead of RBA hikes. Defensives usually perform better after hikes actually start.

ASX stocks to target

In the report, Macquarie also listed individual holdings to target in the resources sector, including:

• Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO)
• Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS)
• South32 Limited (ASX: S32)
• Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST)
• Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX: GMD)
• Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU)

In the financial services sector, the broker named: 

• Challenger Limited (ASX: CGF)
• Australian Finance Group Limited (ASX: AFG)
• Zip Co (ASX: ZIP). 

ASX stocks to avoid

The report from Macquarie also listed the following stocks as ones in sectors that tend to lag ahead of hikes: 

• Wesfarmers Limited (ASX: WES)
• Super Retail Group Limited (ASX: SUL)
• Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV)
• Bapcor Limited (ASX: BAP)
• Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)
• Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX: TWE)
• Suncorp Group Limited (ASX: SUN)
• Origin Energy Limited (ASX: ORG)

The post Macquarie names best and worst ASX stocks to buy in a rising interest rate environment appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Super Retail Group, Treasury Wine Estates, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Super Retail Group and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Challenger, Premier Investments, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.