Russia’s wartime lifeline from China comes with a price: an ’embarrassing reversal’ for Moscow

• Sanctions have forced Russia to lean heavily on China to keep its economy afloat.
• China ships high-tech goods to Russia and buys its oil cheap — a combo that boosts Beijing's leverage.
• Russia's role has shrunk to junior partner as China gains economic influence.

Moscow's wartime pivot to Beijing has helped keep Russia's economy afloat under the weight of sweeping Western sanctions — but at a cost.

What looks like a lifeline today may lock Moscow into a long-term role as Beijing's junior economic partner. Russia is now heavily dependent on China for key manufactured goods and advanced inputs blocked by Western sanctions, according to a report from the Atlantic Council, a think tank, published on Friday.

"Economically and politically, Russia's relationship with China is simultaneously deeply asymmetrical and mutually beneficial," wrote Elina Ribakova, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Lucas Risinger, an economic analyst and nonresident research fellow at the Kyiv School of Economics Institute.

China buys up Russian oil at volumes that offset lost European customers — at a discount — while Russia buys machinery, vehicles, and electronics from the East Asian giant amid Western boycotts and sanctions.

"This is a complete and embarrassing reversal in the relationship compared to the 2000s, when Russia exported higher value-added goods to China," wrote the analysts.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has steered the country's economy into a wartime footing. Heavy defense and government spending help sustain topline resilience, despite sanctions and export restrictions.

But cracks are emerging as energy export revenues have fallen sharply in a low oil-price environment. Consumer demand has also weakened amid still high inflation.

Russia needs China far more than China needs Russia

China now accounts for a large share of Russia's imports, and the vast majority of its trade with China is settled in the Chinese yuan.

Russia became China's top crude oil supplier in 2023, but the country accounts for just one-fifth of China's imports of the commodity. Meanwhile, oil and gas revenues account for a substantial one-third of Russia's budget inflows.

To be sure, China needs global buyers for its massive manufacturing sector, and Russia has become one of them. Still, the gains are "far more important to Russia than to China," since Beijing doesn't rely on Moscow the way Europe relied on Russian energy, wrote the analysts.

Furthermore, "from an economic point of view, China is not a better trading partner for Russia than the European Union was. It buys oil and gas at lower prices, it invests far less in Russia, and its products are often technologically inferior," they added.

This skewed relationship gives Beijing substantial leverage in negotiations and transactions. China purchases Russian oil at steep discounts, knowing Moscow's alternatives are limited.

"While Moscow has not become Beijing's vassal — at least not to the extent that it would attack NATO purely to distract the Alliance from a war for Taiwan — Russia is certainly the junior partner in the 'no limits' partnership," the analysts wrote.