Lessons from a 4-day long weekend

It’s that strange, yet familiar, time of year when most of us really aren’t sure what day it is.

And much to the chagrin of many of us, we don’t even have an ongoing Test match to both remind and occupy us.

The Christmas leftovers have all-but disappeared, but we’re not yet ready to go back to work.

Santa has come and gone, but it’s still 2025… we think.

It’s the time of ‘best/worst/highlights/lowlights of 2025’ in the papers, as they desperately try to bulk out what is otherwise a slow news week.

Even the ASX is the digital equivalent of an empty shell, with only a few traders rattling around, and most company secretaries off on leave.

(That doesn’t mean none are around, and we should be vigilant for those companies who seek to drop bad news when no-one is paying attention!)

No, I’m not going to do a ‘2025 in review’. We did one last weekend on the Motley Fool Money podcast, and that was enough.

No, I’m not going to do predictions for 2026. (We similarly have an upcoming podcast episode devoted to that, too, but with our tongues firmly in our cheeks.)

Instead, I’m going to hold up a mirror, of sorts.

If you’re feeling the strain of a forced ASX detox, with the market closed for four straight days, that might be a sign, of sorts.

Not a criticism, necessarily…

But it might tell you a little about how you approach your investing.

Look, I’m not going to give you grief for being human. We’re wired to notice things, to want more information, and to react to stimuli.

And when I say ‘wired’, I mean it. Our evolutionary path made good use of those instincts, without which our descendants likely wouldn’t have survived to create the line of humans that resulted in us.

So not only is it normal and natural, it’s been a superpower for thousands of years. Our predecessors were literally the best of the best when it came to those instincts that are at the foundation of how we interact with the world.

Which is why, for many of us, investing is so bloody hard!

Investing well requires us to switch off (or at least quieten down) some of the most important parts of our biology.

Take, for example, the fight or flight response.

Natural, when danger is present. More than that, it’s vital when life or death situations present themselves.

But for investors, both can be harmful. Instead, we need to understand the potential risk, acknowledge the innate drive to either run like hell or stand and fight… and do neither.

The acknowledgement is necessary, though, because it’s the only way we can reasonably address it.

“I’m feeling some serious panic, emotional pain and/or stress right now” is not only natural, it’s healthy.

And like the sinner, it’s not the temptation that condemns us, but the sin.

The same applies to investors: Feeling those things isn’t a problem, but letting them overwhelm your decision-making can be seriously harmful to your wealth.

Which takes me back to this week, when the market is closed as often as it is open, and not much happens when it is!

The human brain is wired to want more input; more information. Studies have famously shown that humans are more confident when we have more data but, past a given point, no more accurate.

That is, more data doesn’t make us any more ‘right’, but it sure as hell makes us more likely to think we are!

Again, that’s just evolution, so no judgement from me.

But it’s why I’ve weaned myself off checking my portfolio every five minutes. Watching share prices gyrate is easy to do, and can be kinda hypnotic.

One cent up, here. Two cents down there.

Now what? How about now?

It’s no wonder that, as kids, we routinely (and repeatedly, to our parents’ distraction) asked ‘Are we there yet?’.

Are you recognising yourself in this article?

If so, good.

If not, maybe you’re superhuman… otherwise, maybe it’s time to have another look in the mirror?

Because I’m not here to condemn you. But hubris might.

They say the first step to dealing with a problem is admitting you have one.

So… I’m admitting I have a problem.

I’m drawn to action over inaction. I’m drawn to the ‘need to know’, even if the data isn’t helpful… or is actively unhelpful.

I’m tempted to read those stupid ‘forecast’ articles that proliferate, even though no-one has a crystal ball.

And I know I’m not going to be able to escape the presence of those temptations.

What I have learned to do is to ignore them… or at least minimise their impact.

And that’s what I hope you can learn to do, too.

See, while the ASX was closed on the last couple of public holidays, businesses kept doing their things.

Just as they do every weekend. And before 10am and after 4pm weekdays, even though the market is closed.

Because a business is more than its share price. Far, far more.

But even that is an incomplete picture.

The last few days matter, a little, when it comes to this year’s sales and profit numbers.

A very little.

And those sales and profit numbers matter, a little, when it comes to the value of a company.

What matters far more?

The future.

Even if I have every known and knowable datapoint at my fingertips…

Even if I slavishly hit ‘refresh’ on my portfolio dozens of times a day…

Even if I read every single ASX release available…

Even then, the only thing that counts, over the long term, is the performance of the business whose shares I own.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares sold for less than $5 each in late 1999. They’re now around $175.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) went from under $24 to over $160.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) from under $5 to almost $30.

Why?

In each case, because the business became more dominant, more successful, and more valuable.

Of course, selective data points along the journey might have told you that each was continuing to thrive, and sometimes dive.

But I hope it’s obvious that it was far more important – and profitable – to get the big, long-term picture right, rather than obsess over whether the share price of each had moved up or down 0.5% on a given trading day.

And lest you think I’m only picking winners, the same observations could be made of AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP), whose shares fell from over $13 to under $2 in the same timeframe.

What mattered?

Not the second-by-second volatility in share prices.

Not the breathless reporting and predictions.

But rather, the performance of those companies, over the long term.

(The price you paid – or didn’t pay – mattered a little, but far less than the performance of the companies themselves.)

So, if you are suffering from a little unwanted ASX detox, can I suggest switching from the stock market equivalent of two cans of Red Bull to maybe something just a little less chemically-enhanced.

Maybe you’re not ready for herbal tea, just yet, but perhaps a coffee might replace the Red Bull, then a tea might replace the coffee, in time.

For investors, that’s paying less attention to the noise – the share price movements, articles, forecasts and (false) promises of quick riches – and more to the signal.

And what is the right ‘signal’ for investors?

Swap out the brokerage screen for an annual report or two. Spend time thinking about the company, not the price.

Focus on what and where the company might be in 3, 5 and 10 years’ time.

What is its business model? Is it growing? Does it have a competitive advantage? How sustainable is that advantage? Will that lead to higher profits, not just tomorrow, or next year, but in 5- and 10-years’ time?

Then when you do think about the price, don’t worry about whether it’s up or down. Instead ask yourself if it’s a reasonable price to pay, given the future you expect.

Not quite as exciting, is it?

That’s okay, the share market shouldn’t be exciting, if you’re doing it right.

Get your adrenaline shot somewhere else. Save the stock market for making money, instead.

In the meantime, enjoy the leftovers and not knowing what day it is.

And cross your fingers that the SCG Test lasts longer than an influencer’s Instagram story.

Fool on!

The post Lessons from a 4-day long weekend appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.