Why I expect a 2026 dividend boost from ASX 200 gold stocks like Northern Star and Evolution Mining shares

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks, including Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares, both paid out all-time high final dividends in 2025.

Northern Star paid a fully-franked interim dividend of 25 cents a share on 27 March, followed by the record final dividend of 30 cents per share, paid out on 25 September.

Northern Star shares have gained 51% over the past year, currently trading for $25.34. That sees the ASX 200 gold stock trading on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 2.2%.

Evolution Mining shares have enjoyed an even stronger run, surging 150.1% over the past 12 months, currently changing hands for $13.11 each.

2025 also saw Evolution Mining pay a fully-franked interim dividend of 7 cents per share on 4 April and the all-time high final dividend of 13 cents per share on 3 October. That sees this ASX 200 gold stock trading on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 1.5%.

Now, when it comes to ASX passive income stocks, these yields are on the lower end. Though with those share price gains in mind, you’re unlikely to hear any stockholders complaining!

But with an eye on the year ahead, here’s why I think passive income investors should see these record dividend payouts exceeded in 2026.

Northern Star and Evolution Mining shares in the sweet spot

Both Northern Star and Evolution Mining shareholders have been benefiting from the rocketing gold price.

Gold is currently trading near all-time highs at US$4,573.07 per ounce (AU$6,825 per ounce). This sees the yellow metal up more than 68% since this time last year.

Among other factors, the gold price – and ASX 200 gold stocks – have enjoyed tailwinds from lower interest rates, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying.

Gold purchasing among the world’s central banks is widely expected to remain elevated in 2026. That should help mitigate any pullbacks in the soaring gold price, with central banks generally holding onto their bullion for the long haul.

Now, as noted above, Northern Star shares have trailed the gains delivered by Evolution Mining shares this past year. This is in part due to Northern Star reducing its full-year FY 2026 gold sales guidance to between 1.6 million ounces and 1.7 million ounces at the start of this year. That was down from prior sales guidance of 1.7 million ounces to 1.85 million ounces.

But that’s still a heck of a lot of gold.

And with Northern Star sticking with its full-year all-in sustaining costs (AISC) guidance in the range of AU$2,300 to AU$2,700 per ounce, I think a growing profit margin should usher in higher dividends in the year ahead.

Can the gold price keep rallying in 2026?

While it’s unlikely we’ll see another 68% gain in the gold price in 2026, most analysts remain bullish on the outlook for the yellow metal. That should support further share price gains, and the dividend boosts I expect we’ll see from Northern Star and Evolution Mining shares and other leading ASX 200 gold stocks.

“We continue to expect gold to rally in 2026, as the drivers of its strong run remain intact,” Ian Samson, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said (quoted by Bloomberg).

Darwei Kung, head of commodities and a portfolio manager at DWS Group, added, “Of course, we don’t see the same upside potential of last year, when gold was basically the best asset class of all. But we are still bullish on gold.”

The post Why I expect a 2026 dividend boost from ASX 200 gold stocks like Northern Star and Evolution Mining shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.