Which one of these popular ASX copper stocks is the smarter buy?

ASX copper stocks are back in the spotlight. Electrification, renewable energy expansion, and electric vehicles continue to push demand higher.

Analysts are warning of structural shortages later this decade. As a result, copper producers with scale and growth options are attracting renewed investor interest.

Two ASX copper stocks that stand out are Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) and Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR). They are both leveraged to the copper price, but with very different profiles.

Capstone Copper

Capstone Copper is the larger of the two and is built for growth. The ASX copper share operates large, long-life copper mines across the Americas, with key assets in Chile, the US, and Mexico.

Its recent performance reflects that scale. Over the past year, Capstone has delivered a strong production update. It was driven by the expansion of its Mantoverde development in Chile and steady output from its existing operations.

That momentum has translated into a strong share price run, with the $12 billion ASX 200 copper stock ramping up by 54% in the past 12 months.

What sets Capstone apart is optionality. Beyond current production, the company holds major expansion and development pathways, including further optimisation at Mantoverde and longer-term growth projects in Chile. That gives Capstone significant upside in a bullish copper market.

The trade-off is risk. Large assets come with exposure to labour negotiations, cost inflation, and execution challenges. The ASX copper stock is more sensitive to both copper prices and operational headlines, but with meaningful upside if conditions stay favourable.

Most analysts see the stock as a strong buy. Macquarie maintains a buy rating on Capstone Copper shares with a 12-month price target of $17. This points to a potential 12% gain over 12 months.

Sandfire Resources

Sandfire Resources offers a more balanced copper story. Once best known for its DeGrussa mine in Western Australia, the $9 billion ASX stock has successfully transitioned into a global producer.

Today, its earnings are anchored by the MATSA operations in Spain and the growing Motheo project in Botswana. This diversified footprint has helped Sandfire generate solid cash flow and earnings, even through periods of commodity volatility.

On Thursday, the company reported group sales revenue of $344 million and an underlying operations EBITDA of $187 million for the December 2025 quarter.

The ASX stock continues to invest in exploration and development to extend mine life and lift production over time. However, its strategy leans more toward steady expansion than aggressive growth. Unlike pure growth plays, Sandfire also benefits from valuable by-products such as zinc, silver, and gold, which can soften the impact of copper price swings.

Over the past year, Sandfire’s shares have performed strongly, gaining 87% in value to $19 at the time of writing. Analyst consensus is neutral with the average 12-month price target at $18.07, 6% below the current share price.

This week, Goldman Sachs reiterated its hold rating but lifted its target price from $12.30 to $16.20.

Canaccord Genuity kept its hold rating, too, but lifted its target from $15 to $19.25.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its sell rating with an $11.45 target.

The post Which one of these popular ASX copper stocks is the smarter buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.