Buy, hold, sell: CSL, CBA, and Rio Tinto shares

If you are wondering which of the Australian share market’s giants you should buy, then read on.

That’s because the team at Morgans has given its verdict on three of the largest shares on the ASX.

Are they buys, holds, or sells? Here’s what the broker is recommending to clients:

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

Morgans thinks that CSL shares could be in the buy zone right now. The broker believes the biotechnology giant’s shares are trading on an unjustifiably low valuation, which has created a buying opportunity for investors.

The broker has a buy rating and $249.51 price target on its shares. It said:

Despite the majority of the business “tracking to plan”, FY26 cc guidance had been downgraded (2-3% at revenue and NPATA mid-points), mainly reflecting continued declines in US influenza vaccination rates, although Chinese government cost containment affecting albumin demand was also flagged. While management is confident it can limit the impact of the latter to 1HFY26 via mitigation measures, ongoing uncertainty in the US influenza vaccine market has seen FY27-28 NPATA growth expectations moderate (to HSD from DD) and delay the demerger of Seqirus (prior FY26).

Although it remains challenging to know when US influenza vaccination rates will stabilise, we believe the risk of a permanently lower base is being over-priced, with Seqirus and Vifor marked down, with even Behring trading below peers and well under its long-term average, which we see as unjustified.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

Morgans isn’t anywhere near as positive on banking giant Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The broker thinks that its shares are overvalued and could fall heavily from current levels. It has a sell rating and $96.07 price target on them.

Morgans is highlights that it is concerned that tougher trading conditions and its current valuation mean there is a risk of poor future investment returns. It explains:

The market’s response to a mild earnings miss for a stock priced for perpetual perfection was today’s sharp share price decline. WBC seemed to be a beneficiary. We’ve downgraded FY26-28F EPS and DPS by c.3%. Lower earnings also reduces terminal ROTE and sustainable growth in our DCF valuation. DCF-based target price declines to $96.07/sh.

We remain SELL rated on CBA, recommending clients aggressively reduce overweight positions given the risk of poor future investment returns arising from the even-now overvalued share price and low-to-mid single digit EPS/DPS growth outlook.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The team at Morgans was pleased with this mining giant’s strong finish to FY 2025. However, it highlights that this will be hard to repeat in the first quarter of FY 2026.

As a result, it feels that Rio Tinto’s shares are looking overvalued and has retained its trim rating and $140.00 price target on them. It said:

Record 4Q Pilbara production and shipments enabled RIO to land at the lower end of CY25 guidance, recovering from cyclone disruptions back in 1Q. Copper beat estimates by 14% on Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi strength. Simandou achieved first shipment in December as guided. Making hay while the sun shines, with copper and iron ore beats, but a quarter that will be hard to repeat with Pilbara shipments to normalise and Escondida grades set to moderate in CY26. Valuation remains stretched at current levels. We maintain our TRIM rating with target price unchanged at A$140.

The post Buy, hold, sell: CSL, CBA, and Rio Tinto shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.