Why the $260 billion Glencore merger is a ‘high-stakes gamble’ for Rio Tinto shares

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed on Friday trading for $148.72. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $152.22 apiece, up 2.4%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 1.1% at this same time.

As you may be aware, Rio Tinto shares took a sizeable hit earlier this month, sinking 6.3% on 9 January.

That retrace followed on Rio’s confirmation that it was engaged in preliminary negotiations with Glencore (LSE: GLEN) on a possible merger.

We’ll look at the implications of any such merger below.

But first…

What did Rio and Glencore announce?

On 9 January, Rio Tinto shares sank after the two global mining giants confirmed that they were considering combining their businesses, possibly via an all share merger, into one jumbo-sized miner.

Management stressed that no firm offers have yet been made in the early-stage discussions, with any potential terms remaining undecided.

Should it proceed, Rio Tinto could acquire Glencore via a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement.

And ASX investors won’t have to wait long to find out if this is a serious proposal.

Under UK Takeover Code rules, the ASX 200 mining stock has until 5 February to make a formal announcement on its Glencore intentions.

Rio Tinto shares in ‘high stakes gamble’

Having run her slide rule over the potential acquisition, Sharesies head of capital markets, Jacki Neumann, labelled the $260 billion merger a “high-stakes gamble on the energy transition”.

Part of the appeal for Rio Tinto is Glencore’s strong copper assets. The copper price has been setting new record highs and is currently just off those highs, trading for US$13,199 per tonne. That sees the red metal up 47% over the past 12 months.

“The merger would represent a fundamental strategic shift for Rio Tinto,” Neumann said.

She added:

By integrating Glencore’s copper portfolio, Rio would significantly reduce its exposure to the cyclical volatility of the iron ore market. The pivot would allow Rio to capitalise on projected demand growth from the energy transition and AI infrastructure, moving beyond its legacy focus on industrial bulk commodities.

However, Rio Tinto shares could face some modest headwinds from ESG investors over Glencore’s coal mines.

“A return to coal would test the market’s appetite for responsible stewardship over simple divestiture,” Neumann said.

According to Neumann:

By treating Glencore’s coal as a high-margin funding engine, Rio can self-finance its capital-intensive copper and lithium ambitions. We may see immediate churn from strict ESG funds, but the market is waking up to the ‘bridge theory’, the reality that maintaining legacy cash flows are often necessary to build the renewable infrastructure of the future.

And Neuman noted that Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott will have his work cut out for him convincing investors that a merger with Glencore aligns with his “sharper and simpler” promise.

“CEO Simon Trott is walking a tightrope between simple and massive,” she said.

Neumann concluded:

While a $260 billion merger seems to contradict his promise of a leaner Rio, he’s gambling that buying existing, world-class copper mines is actually ‘simpler’ than the years of red tape and risk involved in developing them from scratch.

If he can successfully spin off the coal, he’ll have pulled off the ultimate shortcut to becoming a future-facing monolith.

With today’s intraday gains factored in, Rio Tinto shares are up 29.4% over 12 months, not including dividends.

The post Why the $260 billion Glencore merger is a ‘high-stakes gamble’ for Rio Tinto shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.