Down 49%, is there a once-in-a-decade opportunity in this ASX 200 stock?

The Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) share price slipped another 1.11% to close the day at $5.36 on Tuesday afternoon. Declines have been par for the course for the ASX 200 stock over the past couple of years. Its share price has gradually and consistently declined since mid-2024 and is currently trading at levels not seen since 2015.

For the year-to-date, the Australian global winemaking and distribution company’s shares are now up 1.13%, but it hasn’t done anywhere near enough to recoup the heavy losses. The shares have shed 48.95% over the past 12 months alone. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) closed 0.92% higher on Tuesday. The index is currently 2.45% higher for the year-to-date and 6.46% above where it was this time last year.

What drove Treasury Wine Estates shares so low?

The ASX 200 stock was one of the worst performers on the ASX 200 Index in 2025. Throughout the 12-month period, the Treasury Wine Estates share price continually tumbled thanks to weaker global demand for wine, higher costs, and disappointing company earnings.

The perfect storm of headwinds weighed heavily on the company, on its share price and dashed investor confidence at the same time.

In fact, in December, the company released an investor update and outlook for the first half of FY26. It said that trading conditions have weakened in recent months, particularly in the US and China. 

The company’s CEO said it is experiencing category weakness in the US and China. These are two of Treasury Wine Estate’s key growth markets. This is expected to negatively impact the business performance in the near-term. 

The CEO added that maintaining the strength of its brands and the health of their respective sales channels is critically important as the company navigates these headwinds. Any near-term improvement is unlikely.

Treasury Wine Estates now expects its earnings before interest and tax to be between $225 million and $235 million in the first half of FY26. The second half of FY26 is expected to be stronger.

Is this a once-in-decade opportunity to buy the ASX 200 stock?

It looks like this could be the case. The current share price is among the lowest seen over the past 10 years. The share price last dipped below $6 back in 2015. 

Analysts seem to be uncertain about where the share price will go from here, but most agree there will be some element of upside. TradingView data shows 11 out of 17 analysts have a hold rating on the ASX 200 stock. Another 5 have a buy or strong buy rating.

The average target price is $5.53 a piece, which implies an upside of 3.11% at the time of writing. But, some expect Treasury Wine Estates shares to climb as high as $8.55 a piece. This implies a potential 59.51% hike in 2026. If that were to happen, then right now presents a fantastic buying opportunity for investors who want to get in ahead of the next price spike.

The post Down 49%, is there a once-in-a-decade opportunity in this ASX 200 stock? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.