BHP shares: Should I buy now or wait?

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are trading around $50.26 on Thursday, putting them very close to a 52-week high. Earlier this week, that strength made BHP Australia’s most valuable listed company again.

When a stock is already near its peak, the instinctive reaction is often to wait. But in BHP’s case, I think there’s a strong argument that buying now can still make sense, even at these levels.

Here’s why I wouldn’t let the share price alone stop me.

Copper exposure

The main reason I’m comfortable buying BHP shares here is copper.

BHP is one of the world’s largest copper producers, with assets that sit at the low end of the global cost curve. Over time, I think that exposure becomes more valuable, not less. Electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data centres are all copper-intensive, and there are very few large, high-quality copper projects coming online globally.

What I like about BHP is that it doesn’t need a speculative surge in demand for the copper story to work. Even steady, structural growth can tighten supply over time, which supports pricing and margins. In that environment, BHP’s scale and asset quality give it a clear advantage.

Free cash flow

Another reason I’m happy buying BHP near its highs is free cash flow.

BHP has consistently shown it can generate substantial cash flows across the cycle. That matters because it gives the company options. It can fund growth, strengthen the balance sheet, return capital to shareholders, or do all three at once.

For me, this reduces the risk of buying at elevated levels. Even if commodity prices don’t move sharply higher from here, BHP doesn’t need everything to go right to keep producing strong cash flows. That provides a margin of safety that many other cyclical stocks simply don’t have.

Scale still matters

BHP’s size can sometimes be seen as a negative, but I actually see it as a strength.

Large-scale mining projects are increasingly difficult to approve, build, and operate. BHP already owns world-class assets, has deep technical expertise, and operates with a level of discipline that smaller players struggle to match. Over time, that tends to separate the leaders from the rest.

I also like that management has become more focused on returns rather than empire building. Capital allocation feels more measured than it did in past cycles, which I believe supports long-term shareholder outcomes.

Foolish Takeaway

Buying a stock near its highs is never comfortable, and BHP shares are no exception. But I don’t think this is a case where waiting automatically improves your odds.

Between its growing importance as a copper producer, its ability to generate strong free cash flow, and the quality of its asset base, I think BHP shares can still be worth buying today. It may not deliver fireworks in the short term, but as a long-term holding backed by real assets and real cash generation, I’m comfortable saying yes rather than waiting on the sidelines. Especially with Bank of America seeing scope for the miner’s shares to rally to $56.

The post BHP shares: Should I buy now or wait? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• If I invest $12,000 in BHP shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2026?
• ASX All Ords shares smashing 52-week highs today
• Bye bye CBA: BHP is back as the ASX 200’s biggest stock

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.