3 of my high-conviction ASX 200 share picks for February

When I’m choosing high-conviction shares to back, I’m not looking for clever trades or short-term themes. I’m looking for businesses I feel genuinely comfortable owning, adding to, and holding through different market environments.

Right now, three ASX 200 shares sit firmly in that category for me. They operate in very different industries, but each stands out as a company with a clear strategy, strong execution, and the kind of business model I want exposure to over the long term.

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Temple & Webster strikes me as a business that has been quietly building while the spotlight has been elsewhere.

Yes, the broader housing and consumer backdrop hasn’t been ideal, but what stands out to me is how well positioned the company looks when conditions do improve. Temple & Webster operates a highly scalable, asset-light model that allows it to adapt quickly without the burden of physical store networks or heavy fixed costs.

Its brand is well established, its customer data is deep, and its technology-driven merchandising gives it a level of agility that traditional retailers simply can’t match. Rather than stretching for growth, management has focused on improving efficiency, margins, and execution, exactly what you want to see during a tougher cycle.

When housing turnover lifts and discretionary spending starts to flow again, Temple & Webster doesn’t need a major strategic reset. The platform is already there. It just needs demand to do what it naturally does over time.

From my perspective, this feels like a business that’s well placed to benefit disproportionately when conditions turn more favourable.

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT)

Catapult is one of those ASX 200 shares where the product does most of the talking.

Elite sports teams don’t adopt performance analytics platforms lightly, and once they do, they rarely switch providers. Catapult’s technology is deeply embedded in how teams train, manage athlete workloads, and make tactical decisions. That creates a level of stickiness that isn’t always obvious from the share price alone.

What makes now interesting is the growing focus on profitability rather than just customer growth. Catapult has reached a scale where incremental revenue is starting to matter, and margins are becoming a bigger part of the conversation.

I see this as a business moving from proving the model to harvesting the model. When that transition happens smoothly, the market often re-rates the stock faster than expected.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Zip is a very different kind of opportunity. The buy now, pay later company has spent the last couple of years doing the unglamorous work of fixing its balance sheet, tightening credit standards, and exiting less attractive markets. That reset hasn’t been exciting, but it has been necessary.

What stands out to me now is that the ASX 200 share is not even being priced like a business that has turned a corner. Despite stabilising operations and improving unit economics, I believe the share price still reflects a lot of past fear.

Buy now, pay later isn’t disappearing. It’s evolving. And Zip’s leaner cost base and more disciplined approach leave it positioned for sustainable growth.

For investors willing to look past the scars of the last cycle, the risk-reward profile here feels far more balanced than the price suggests.

Foolish takeaway

For me, high-conviction investing is about identifying businesses I genuinely believe have strong long-term potential and backing them with patience.

Temple & Webster, Catapult, and Zip each stand out as companies with clear strategies, scalable models, and management teams focused on execution. They’re different businesses solving different problems, but all three strike me as stocks I’d be happy to own and add to from here, with a long-term mindset.

The post 3 of my high-conviction ASX 200 share picks for February appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Zip shares climb 10% higher this week. Can they keep going?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 reasons to buy Zip shares today
• 3 ASX 200 shares to buy: experts
• Bell Potter names the best ASX shares to buy in February

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.