Guess which ASX consumer discretionary stock Bell Potter thinks is set to rise 50%

Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW) is one of the top three largest ASX consumer discretionary stocks by market capitalisation.

Blue-chip companies are large, well-established businesses that already make steady profits, so they usually grow slowly rather than rapidly. 

Because they are already large and stable, there’s less room for dramatic expansion, which means their stock prices typically don’t have huge upside potential.

At the time of writing, ASX consumer discretionary stock Light & Wonder has a market capitalisation of over $12 billion. 

That puts it as one of the 100 largest companies in Australia. 

Despite its size and solid track record, a new report from Bell Potter indicates it also could come with the rare combination of stability and big share price upside. 

Here’s what the broker had to say. 

Expectations for 4Q25 for Light & Wonder

Light & Wonder is a global gaming and entertainment company that creates and supplies gaming machines, game content, and digital gaming platforms.

It provides electronic gaming machines to casinos and clubs, along with digital and casual/social games through its SciPlay division.

Light & Wonder is set to report fourth quarter and full year 2025 results on Tuesday, 24 February. 

Bell Potter said expectations for the 4Q25 result are relatively low. 

Consensus is expecting CY25 EBITDA ($1,435m) to come in at the low end of the company’s guidance range. ($1,430-1,470m). 

We see minimal risk of downside surprise at the result, however, the lumpiness and lack of visibility in the Gaming sales segment could create earnings volatility.

NASDAQ De-listing good news for ASX

In this week’s report, the broker also highlighted the change in guidance due to Light & Wonder de-listing from the NASDAQ exchange.

In November 2025, the company de-listed from the NASDAQ exchange and is now solely exposed to trade flows of the ASX.

The company said in an announcement last year: 

Our decision to transition to a sole primary listing on the ASX reflects our strategic focus on aligning our capital markets presence with our long-term growth plans and shareholder base.

Updated price target 

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter upgraded its outlook on this ASX consumer discretionary stock. 

The broker now has a price target of $230.00 along with a buy recommendation. 

Last week, Light & Wonder shares were hovering around $152.00 per share, which is more than 50% below Bell Potter’s updated price target. 

We rate LNW a Buy due to a compelling GARP profile relative to the ASX 100. 

We expect a continuation in the re-rate observed since the ASX sole listing in November 2025, as long as the company executes on market share gains in its respective markets. We believe LNW’s heightened investment in R&D will drive continued growth, particularly in the Premium leased market.

The post Guess which ASX consumer discretionary stock Bell Potter thinks is set to rise 50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Light & Wonder Inc. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Light & Wonder Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.