Stock Pick

Bell Potter tips 34% a turnaround for this ASX consumer staples stock

Written by

openjargon

in

Ecstatic woman looking at her phone outside with her fist pumped.

Select Harvests Ltd (ASX: SHV) is an ASX consumer staples stock that has endured a tough 12 months. 

Select Harvest shares fell 3.43% yesterday, closing at $3.94 per share. 

Its share price is now down just over 20% year to date. 

However a new report from Bell Potter suggests it could now be priced at an attractive entry point.

The new report from Bell Potter has come after the company’s FY25 AGM.

Response to the AGM 

Select Harvests is an integrated grower, processor and marketer of almonds owning and operating farming and processing assets in Australia. It offers a vertically integrated model with core capabilities in farming, processing and marketing.

Yesterday, Bell Potter adjusted its outlook on this company following the AGM. 

The broker anticipates softer near-term earnings driven mainly by currency and cost assumptions, while maintaining a positive long-term outlook.

It said cost pressures remain in areas such as bees, water and fertiliser, though FY26 water cost assumptions have been slightly reduced given lower year-to-date prices.

Volume forecasts remain unchanged at 29,000 tonnes for FY26, with management noting a fast bloom, successful bee procurement and no major frost damage, while industry forecasts point to a 7% year-on-year increase in Australia’s 2026 crop.

As a result of updated pricing, FX and water assumptions, Bell Potter has reduced EBITDA forecasts by 7% in FY26 and 10% in FY27, with a modest 1% uplift in FY28.

Price target adjustment for this consumer staples stock

According to yesterday’s report, the target price has been lowered to $5.30 per share (from $5.80). 

However Bell Potter retained its buy recommendation, citing supportive global supply dynamics – including a smaller-than-expected Californian crop and weak snowpack – along with attractive valuation metrics (11.4x FY26e EPS, ~30% EPS CAGR FY25–28e) and a roughly 20% discount to market book value.

Bell Potter’s price target of $5.30 indicates a potential upside of 34.5%. 

We also see SHV trading at a ~20% discount to market-BV, with recent orchard transactions supportive of the market value as reported (~$4.97/sh).

Elsewhere, the average analysts rating via TradingView also indicates there is plenty of upside for this consumer staples stock. 

TradingView has an average 12 month price target of $5.42 which indicates an upside of approximately 37.5%. 

The post Bell Potter tips 34% a turnaround for this ASX consumer staples stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Should you invest $1,000 in Select Harvests Limited right now?

Before you buy Select Harvests Limited shares, consider this:

Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Select Harvests Limited wasn’t one of them.

The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

See the 5 Stocks

* Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

.custom-cta-button p {
margin-bottom: 0 !important;
}

More reading

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More posts