Which ASX 200 retail stock looks stronger: JB Hi-Fi or Harvey Norman?

Two of the best-known ASX retail stocks are JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) and Harvey Norman Ltd (ASX: HVN).

This sector relies heavily on economic conditions and consumer sentiment. These pressures have kept the sector lower in the past year.

The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) has lost 7.7% in the past 12 months.

Here’s what experts are tipping for the ASX retail stocks. 

JB Hi-Fi Ltd

The group sells consumer electronics, electrical products and white goods through its JB Hi-Fi, JB Hi-Fi Home and The Good Guys brands.

The ASX retail stock has dropped about 12.5% over 12 months and is down 7.6% in 2026, at the time of writing.

On Monday, the electronics and homewares retailer posted a 7.3% increase in sales to a record $6.1 billion. Net profit was up 7.1% to $305.8 million and the interim dividend was boosted by a massive 23.5% to 210 cents per share.

What’s the verdict on the ASX retail stock? Analysts are split, but some remain firmly bullish.

Macquarie Group is the most optimistic. Analysts argue market concerns are overdone and they see tailwinds ahead, including ongoing tech upgrade cycles.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $106 versus the current share price of $88.94. If delivered, that implies a 19% upside.  

Citi also rates the ASX retail stock a buy but trimmed its target from $110 to $100. The team was “positively surprised” by gross margins at JB Hi-Fi and The Good Guys. Based on history — just one major downgrade in 15 years — Citi sees limited risk of sharp earnings cuts.

Morgans Financial takes a more cautious stance. It rates the retailer a hold and lowered its price target from $95 to $87. Morgans described the latest profit result as ‘solid’. The team acknowledged the company’s market leadership but cut earnings forecasts on softer sales growth assumptions.

Harvey Norman

It’s a very different story for Harvey Norman. The ASX retail stock has surged more than 22% over the past 12 months, ranking among 2025’s top retail performers. Strong FY25 results drove the rally.

Beyond electronics and furniture, Harvey Norman also owns a large property portfolio. This adds stable income and underpinning dividends.

So, what’s next for the ASX retail stock— more upside, or time to lock in gains?

Like rival JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman also offers income appeal. It’s forecast to deliver a fully franked dividend yield of 4.5% in FY26.

At Bell Potter, analysts see value in Harvey Norman as an ASX dividend play. They point to its franchise model, which throws off strong cash flow and gives the retailer flexibility in tough conditions.

Bell Potter forecasts fully franked dividends of 30.9 cents in FY26 and 35.3 cents in FY27. At $6.38 a share, that implies yields of 4.85% and 5.5%.

The broker rates the ASX retail stock a buy with an $8.30 price target. That’s on the upper end of TradingView data. Analysts have set the average 12-month price target at $7.30. That points to a potential gain 14.7% and a little over 19% in total returns, including dividends.

The post Which ASX 200 retail stock looks stronger: JB Hi-Fi or Harvey Norman? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why BHP, JB Hi-Fi, Judo Capital, and PEXA shares are storming higher today
• Is JB Hi-Fi a buy, sell or hold following its half-year result?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Up 23%: Everything you need to know about the massive JB Hi-Fi dividend

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.