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Why this growing ASX 200 gold stock could rise 40%

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A man sees some good news on his phone and gives a little cheer.

If you are wanting exposure to the gold industry, then it could be worth considering the ASX 200 gold stock in this article.

That’s because if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation, this gold miner’s shares could provide big returns over the next 12 months.

Which ASX 200 gold stock?

The gold stock that Bell Potter is bullish on is Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD). It is a gold miner focused on the prolific Leonora District in Western Australia.

Bell Potter was pleased with its half-year results, noting that its revenue and earnings were largely in line with expectations. It said:

Highlights of GMD’s 1HFY26 financial result include: Revenue of A$820m, a 142% increase vs PcP (BPe A$814m & VA A$814m); COGS were A$371m, an 85% increase vs PcP, as production ramped up across the two production centres. Costs were mildly ahead of our estimates and consensus after adjusting for depreciation and amortisation; EBITDA in the first half was A$430m (BPe A$441m, VA A$430m). NPAT was A$238m, a 4x increase on the PcP of $59.8m, driven by a higher achieved gold price and increased production. The result was largely in line with our estimate and ~2% below consensus.

The other big news is that the ASX 200 gold stock has signed an agreement to acquire Magnetic Resources NL (ASX: MAU) for $639 million. Bell Potter points out that this deal puts the company on a production pathway to 500,000 ounces per annum. This compares to its current guidance for FY 2026 of 260,000 ounces to 290,000 ounces. The broker said:

The acquisition adds 2.2Moz in Resources (acquisition cost A$290/oz Resource). The acquisition brings potentially higher-grade inventories into the Laverton mill (~20km away), helping lift production and supplementing lower grade ounces from Jupiter. The long-term growth guidance update has been pushed back, with management now targeting 1QFY27 (previously 2HFY26). A statement was made on mill expansion capacity targets of between 3.5-4.0Mtpa at Tower Hill, whether this supplements the existing Leonora mill (1.4Mtpa) or replaces it is uncertain.

Time to buy

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $9.90 price target on the ASX 200 gold stock.

Based on its current share price of $6.87, this implies potential upside of 44% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

We maintain our TP of $9.90 and Buy recommendation. We believe GMD to be a high-quality gold producer, expanding production underpinned by a large Mineral Resource portfolio (21.0Moz pending completion of MAU transaction), into a rising gold price environment.

The post Why this growing ASX 200 gold stock could rise 40% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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