Should I buy Qantas shares after their 9% decline?

Shares in Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) fell 9% on Thursday following the release of the airline’s half-year results.

That drop came despite Qantas delivering an underlying profit before tax of $1.46 billion and underlying earnings per share of 68 cents for the half. In other words, the result itself was solid.

So the question is not whether the numbers were weak. It is whether the pullback has created an opportunity.

Here is why I would be leaning towards yes.

Earnings funding a more profitable future

One of the most important themes in the release was fleet renewal.

CEO Vanessa Hudson made it clear that strong earnings are allowing Qantas to invest in “the largest fleet renewal in our history.” She also noted that the next-generation aircraft already in service are helping drive financial performance.

That matters.

Airlines are capital-intensive businesses. The difference between an average airline and a high-quality one often comes down to fleet age, fuel efficiency, maintenance costs, and network flexibility.

Qantas delivered nine new aircraft during the half and is accelerating deliveries, with 30 more expected over the next 18 months. Around 60% of Jetstar’s increase in profitability in the half was driven by its new aircraft, according to management.

In other words, earnings today are being reinvested into assets that should improve margins tomorrow.

Newer aircraft are more fuel efficient, cheaper to maintain, and open up new routes such as the ultra long-range A350s for Project Sunrise. Over time, that can structurally lift returns on capital.

A dominant position in a rational market

Airlines typically trade on low earnings multiples because they operate in brutally competitive markets.

But Australia is different.

Qantas operates in what is effectively a duopoly domestically, alongside Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN). That structure has historically supported rational capacity growth and healthier margins than seen in markets like the US or Europe.

Group Domestic delivered $1.05 billion in underlying EBIT in the half, up 14%. Loyalty also remains a high-quality earnings stream, with underlying EBIT of $286 million, up 12%.

When you combine the core airline business with a fast-growing, high-margin loyalty arm, you start to see why Qantas arguably deserves to trade at a premium to many global peers.

Valuation looks compelling

Qantas reported underlying earnings per share of 68 cents in the first half. If we annualise this to 136 cents, Qantas shares are trading at roughly 7.1 times earnings.

Yes, airlines often trade on low multiples. Cyclicality, fuel price volatility, and geopolitical risk justify some discount.

But I think Qantas is not a typical airline.

It has a dominant position in a relatively insulated domestic market, a dual-brand strategy through Qantas and Jetstar, a valuable and growing Loyalty division, a clear fleet renewal program that is already driving profit improvements, and strong liquidity of $12.6 billion at the end of the half.

That combination makes it closer, in my view, to a high-quality franchise than a marginal commodity business.

In some ways, I think of it like the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) of the airline industry. CBA trades at a premium to other banks because of its scale, brand, technology leadership, and dominant market position. Investors are willing to pay up for quality and consistency.

Qantas may never trade on a bank-like multiple. But if it continues to execute, invest in its fleet, grow Loyalty, and maintain pricing discipline in a rational market, I think 7.1 times earnings could prove dirt cheap.

So, should I buy Qantas shares after the 9% fall?

For me, a 9% pullback after a strong profit result is not a red flag. It is often the market digesting guidance, costs, or simply locking in gains after a strong run.

What matters more is whether the long-term story is intact.

Qantas is generating significant earnings. Those earnings are funding a younger, more efficient fleet. The loyalty business continues to expand. The domestic market structure remains rational. And the shares are trading on a low earnings multiple relative to that quality.

Airlines will always carry risk. Fuel costs, economic slowdowns, and operational disruptions can hurt profits quickly.

But at around 7 times annualised earnings, with structural improvements underway, I would be comfortable buying Qantas shares after this decline as part of a diversified portfolio.

The post Should I buy Qantas shares after their 9% decline? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.