Northern Star Resources shares crash 22% in 2 days – These brokers say buy the dip

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares have endured an awful past week of trading. 

Last Friday, the ASX 200 gold stock fell more than 18%. 

This was followed up by a 5.3% drop on Monday.

Holders of Northern Star shares would be feeling the pinch after such a horror run. 

However, brokers are now adjusting their outlooks and suggesting it could be a buy-low opportunity. 

Why did Northern Star shares crash?

Northern Star Resources is a global-scale Australian gold producer with projects in Australia and North America.

Investors were exiting their positions in the gold producer in the last couple of days after the company released an operational update.

The company’s operational update indicates it may fall short of the lower end of its full-year production guidance, with operational challenges affecting performance so far in FY26.

It has now downgraded gold sales twice in FY26 and the three times since FY25. 

Northern Star reported total gold sales of 220,000 ounces for January and February 2026, while FY26 production is now expected to exceed 1.50 million ounces, lower than previously guided. 

Results were impacted by weaker-than-planned milling performance at KCGM and reduced mining productivity at Jundee. 

At KCGM, open-pit high-grade ore mined averaged 1.6g/t during the first two months of 2026. 

The KCGM mill expansion project remains on track, with commissioning targeted for early FY27.

What are brokers saying?

While it’s been bad news for holders of Northern Resources shares, recent broker notes suggest it could be an attractive entry point for future investors. 

The share price has now crashed 35% since the start of March. 

It closed yesterday at $20.58 per share. 

Bell Potter did note it was very disappointed to see the company downgrade its FY 2026 guidance for a second time last week.

It said the disappointing downgrade is likely to remain as a significant overhang for the stock over the next 12-18 months until the ramp up of the upgraded mill at KCGM commences. We see potential positives from asset rationalisation, given the high capital and operating costs at the likes of Jundee and Thunderbox.

However the broker retained its buy rating and $35.00 price target. 

From yesterday’s closing price, that indicates an upside of approximately 70%. 

Similarly, the team at Morgans released fresh analysis following the recent crash. 

The broker downgraded its forecasts for KCGM (FY26, FY27) and Yandal (FY26 and beyond) until operations demonstrate a period of stability. 

It also downgraded its price target for Northern Star shares to $30.00ps (previously $35.00). 

Our BUY rating is maintained, we note valuation strength is derived from the long-term growth profile rather than near-term earnings.

This updated target from Morgans still indicates a potential upside of 45.77%. 

The post Northern Star Resources shares crash 22% in 2 days – These brokers say buy the dip appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.