Does Northern Star shares have further to fall?

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares have taken a massive hit this week, with selling picking up after a weak update from the company.

The share price is down 2.58% to $18.47 at the time of writing. Over the past week, the stock has dropped about 32%, putting it among the worst performers in the gold sector.

So, what has gone wrong, and where to from here?

Production concerns weigh on sentiment

The sell-off followed an operational update that has raised fresh concerns for investors.

Northern Star said production is now expected to land at the lower end of its FY26 guidance range. It also flagged weaker milling performance at KCGM and softer mining productivity at Jundee.

For January and February 2026, gold sales totalled 220,000 ounces. Open pit grades at KCGM averaged about 1.6 grams per tonne, which fell short of expectations.

Although the company still expects full-year production to exceed 1.5 million ounces, the update has shifted the focus to execution risks.

It is also not the first downgrade. Northern Star has lowered expectations multiple times, which is starting to weigh on investor confidence.

Gold price pullback adds to pressure

The broader market backdrop has not helped.

Gold prices have pulled back in recent weeks after a strong run earlier in the year. The metal is now down around 10% over the past month, which has weighed on sentiment across the sector.

At the same time, costs remain a concern. Rising oil prices and ongoing inflation across labour and materials are adding pressure to operating margins.

This combination of softer gold prices and higher costs has made investors more hesitant on gold stocks in the short term.

Mixed views from brokers

Despite the heavy sell-off, broker views are not all negative.

Bell Potter has kept a ‘buy’ rating on Northern Star but noted the latest update was disappointing. It expects the share price could stay under pressure in the near term as the market digests the weaker guidance.

Morgans also revised its forecasts after the announcement, cutting its price target from $35 to $30. Even after this cut, the revised target still implies upside from current levels.

Across the market, views remain split. Some see value at these levels if operations improve, while others remain focused on execution risks and rising costs.

What to watch from here

Attention will now shift to Northern Star’s next quarterly update.

Investors will be watching production, costs, and whether performance at KCGM and Jundee starts to improve. Another downgrade would likely put further pressure on the share price.

Gold prices will also remain a key driver in the near term.

Until then, the market is likely to stay focused on delivery.

The post Does Northern Star shares have further to fall? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.