Which top ASX gold stock just took the biggest hit?

It was a brutal start to the week for ASX gold stocks.

On Monday alone, the three biggest gold names — Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM), Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) — all tumbled around 7%.

Zoom out, and the picture gets even uglier. These stocks are now down between 25% and 40% over the past month. So much for gold being a safe haven.

What’s behind the sell-off? And which ASX gold stock has taken the biggest hit?

Hit from multiple angles

The key driver has been a sharp retreat in global gold prices. That alone tends to drag gold miners lower.

But there’s more going on.

At the same time, oil prices have surged. That shift has pulled investor capital away from gold and into energy plays. When momentum rotates, it can move fast.

Interest rates aren’t helping either. Rising cash rate expectations — including pressure from the Reserve Bank of Australia — are weighing on sentiment. Gold typically performs best in low-rate environments. Higher rates reduce its appeal.

Put it all together, and ASX gold stocks have been hit from multiple angles.

Which ASX gold stock fell the hardest?

While all three names have suffered steep declines, Northern Star appears to be the hardest hit over the past month, with a decline of 39%.

The stock has seen the sharpest pullback among the trio, as investors reassess its valuation and growth outlook in a weaker gold price environment.

That’s a notable shift. Northern Star had been a market favourite not long ago.

What do analysts think now?

Newmont

Newmont shares tumbled 25% in the past month, but they’re still 76% up over 12 months.

Most brokers still seem to be positive on the $155 billion ASX gold stock. TradingView data show that 21 out of 25 Newmont watchers rate it a buy or strong buy.

They have set an average 12-month price target of roughly 206.00, which points to a 56% upside at the time of writing.

Morgans has taken a cautious stance on Newmont. The broker has an accumulate rating and a $187.00 price target on its shares. That suggests 40% upside, but not enough to justify a more aggressive call.

Northern Star

Northern Star still has its fans, despite taking the hardest fall.

Bell Potter currently maintains a buy rating and a $30.00 price target, suggesting a potential gain of 74% over 12 months. That signals confidence in the company’s production profile and asset base.

However, it’s worth noting Bell Potter’s target has come down from $35.00. That reflects softer expectations across the sector.

Evolution Mining

This is where sentiment turns more cautious. The ASX gold stock shed 24.4% of its value over a month.

Not many brokers are convinced Evolution offers compelling value at current levels. The average price target sits at $14.55. That implies a 26% upside from where the stock is trading now.

In short, the market sees more risk than reward here — at least for the moment.

The bottom line

ASX gold stocks have taken a heavy hit, and the safe haven label is being tested.

Falling gold prices, rising oil, and higher interest rate expectations have created a tough backdrop.

For investors, the key question is whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.

One thing is clear: in this market, even gold isn’t immune to volatility.

The post Which top ASX gold stock just took the biggest hit? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Why Genesis Energy, Northern Star, PLS, and WiseTech shares are falling today
• Should you buy these ASX gold stocks after last week’s crash?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.