Missed BHP shares’ massive run? Here’s what could happen next

BHP shares (ASX: BHP) have been on a wild ride. The mining giant steamed to a 52-week high of $59.39 in early March, only to tumble to roughly $47 not long after. But the story didn’t end there.

Over the past three weeks, BHP shares have clawed its way back to $53.98 at the time of writing, capping off a remarkable 52% gain over the past 12 months.

So, has the easy money already been made? Or is there still an opportunity for investors willing to dig deeper?

Let’s start with the positives — and there are plenty.

Exposure to copper

BHP remains one of the world’s lowest-cost producers. That’s a huge advantage in a sector where margins can swing wildly. When commodity prices fall, high-cost operators feel the squeeze first. BHP, by contrast, has the scale and efficiency to stay profitable through the cycle.

Then there’s its exposure to future-facing commodities. Copper, in particular, stands out. As electrification accelerates and the global energy transition gathers pace, demand for copper is expected to surge. The mining giant is well positioned to benefit from that structural tailwind.

Layer on a strong balance sheet and reliable cash generation, and it’s clear why BHP continues to appeal to long-term investors. This is a business built to endure — and potentially thrive — through volatility.

Highly reliant on China

But let’s not ignore the risks.

BHP is deeply cyclical. Its fortunes are closely tied to global growth and especially to China. If economic activity slows or Chinese demand weakens, commodity prices could slide further. That would put pressure on earnings and, by extension, the BHP share price.

There are also external pressures to watch. Geopolitical tensions, fluctuating energy costs, and rising labour expenses all have the potential to chip away at margins.

What do the experts think?

According to TradingView data, sentiment is mixed but still leans cautiously positive. Eleven analysts currently rate BHP shares as a hold, while seven have buy or strong buy recommendations. Two analysts sit on the bearish side with sell ratings.

The average 12-month price target comes in at $52.44, slightly below current levels. That implies a modest 2.9% downside. That suggests the market sees limited short-term upside after the recent rebound.

However, the bulls aren’t backing down. The most optimistic forecast tips BHP shares could climb to $65.82, representing a potential gain of around 22% from here.

Meanwhile, analysts at Morgans round out the picture with a hold rating of their own. They remain positive on the company’s long-term outlook but aren’t quite convinced it’s a screaming buy right now.

BHP is a diversified mining company producing iron ore, copper, nickel, metallurgical coal and potash. First half revenue in fiscal year 2026 grew 11 per cent on the prior corresponding period and profit after tax was up 28 per cent. The fully franked interim dividend of US73 cents a share was up 46 per cent and ahead of consensus. BHP’s fundamentals position it to play a recovery in China’s subdued growth. Capital expenditure cycles and copper growth provide a compelling reason to retain BHP as a core position in portfolios.

Foolish Takeaway

BHP shares may have pulled back from their highs, but the core investment case remains intact. For investors willing to ride out the commodity cycle, this could be a dip worth watching closely, even if patience is required.

The post Missed BHP shares’ massive run? Here’s what could happen next appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why this HALO focused ASX ETF outperformed over the last month
• Why I’d buy BHP and DroneShield shares next week
• Why ASX dividend investing still works for building long-term wealth
• Buying BHP shares? Here’s how AI is boosting the mining giant’s revenue
• Monadelphous wins $145m of new and renewed resources sector contracts

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.