Origin Energy shares: Experts argue the case to buy, hold, and sell

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares are down 0.1% to $12.36 on Tuesday, while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.3%.

The Origin Energy share price is up 9% in the year to date and up 22.5% over the past 12 months.

Origin Energy produces and sells natural gas and electricity to wholesale and retail customers in Australia and overseas.

This ASX 200 utilities stock has fluctuated in price over the past year.

Origin Energy shares traded at a 52-week low of $9.96 in May 2025 and lifted to an annual high of $13.13 in August 2025.

By early 2026, the stock had experienced a gradual decline back into the high $10 range before regaining some momentum.

During earnings season in February, Origin Energy reported a substantial fall in profit for 1H FY26 compared to 1H FY25.

Statutory profit was $557 million in 1H FY26, down from $1,017 million in 1H FY25.

Underlying profit was $593 million, down from $924 million in 1H FY25.

Origin Energy shares: 3 views

Expert views on this ASX 200 utilities stock are currently mixed.

Jed Richards from Shaw and Partners is buy-rated on Origin shares.

Richards likes the company’s attractive income profile and leveraged exposure to Australia’s changing energy market.

He commented on The Bull this week:

The company benefits from scale in electricity generation and retailing, while its yield remains appealing in a market still sensitive to income certainty.

That said, regulatory risk and energy price volatility remain key risks.

We see Origin as well placed to balance defensive income characteristics with longer term opportunities tied to the domestic energy transition.

Ord Minnett thinks investors in Origin Energy shares should hang on to them for now.

After reviewing Origin’s 1H FY26 report, the broker said:

… we remain cautious on Origin given the headwinds we see – increased capital expenditure to maintain APLNG production, ongoing bad debt problems at Octopus, weaker wholesale electricity pricing, and a likely fall in spot LNG prices – and remain at Hold.

The broker noted that Origin had exceeded its expectations for December-quarter LNG production and revenue, and average realised price.

However, Ord Minnett is concerned about future performance:

The stronger realised pricing in the quarter was likely driven by sales into the spot LNG market, in our view, and raises a question over whether the performance can be repeated in coming quarters considering weak domestic gas demand.

Volumes in Origin’s electricity and gas volumes in its energy markets division were weak, with retail volumes stable but business demand falling.

Last week, Ord Minnett reiterated its hold rating but raised its 12-month price target from $11 to $11.10.

Morgan Stanley has a similar price target to Ord Minnett but a sell rating on the stock.

Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Koh reiterated his sell rating on Origin Energy shares.

Koh also shaved his 12-month price target down from $11.11 to $11.07.

The post Origin Energy shares: Experts argue the case to buy, hold, and sell appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.