5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week with a small decline. The benchmark index fell 0.1% to 8,946.9 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to jump

The Australian share market looks set for a strong start to the week following a good finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 82 points or 0.85% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones was up 1.8%, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.5%.

Oil prices crash

It could be a poor start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices crashed on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 11.45% to US$83.85 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was down 9.1% to US$90.38 a barrel. This was driven by news that the Strait of Hormuz is open again. However, conflicting news over the weekend could mean oil prices reverse these declines when Asian markets open.

TechnologyOne shares downgrade

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) shares are fairly valued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has downgraded the enterprise software provider’s shares to a hold rating with an improved price target of $31.00 (from $29.00). It said: “We downgrade our recommendation on Technology One from BUY to HOLD given the rally in the share price to above our target price. We believe the stock now looks fairly valued on FY26 and FY27 EV/EBITDA multiples of c.32x and 28x which [we] note are the highest in our coverage of S&P/ASX 100 technology stocks and well above that of WiseTech Global on c.22x and 18x.”

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good start to the week after the gold price stormed higher on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 1.5% to US$4,879.6 an ounce. This was also driven by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It is possible this gain could also reverse in Asian trade today.

Netwealth given accumulate rating

In response to its quarterly update, Morgans has put an accumulate rating on Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares with a $29.00 price target. It said: “Despite ongoing volatility and uncertainty tied to a US/Middle East conflict and a potential resolution, market momentum has recovered from peak pessimism in the March Quarter, with the ASX All Ordinaries +5.6% month-to-date in April’26, which will have seen FUA growth momentum improve post quarter end. Looking through this near-term volatility NWL remains on track deliver solid growth FY26F and well placed to capitalised on the long runway of opportunity ahead. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating, with a Price target of $29.00/sh.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• A 2026 market crash could be a once-in-a-decade chance to build a $1 million ASX portfolio
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• ASX 200 tech shares rocket 13% as long-awaited sector rebound accelerates
• Which ASX 200 tech stock has Bell Potter just downgraded?
• The tech rally is back: here are 5 ASX shares leading the charge

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Technology One and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.