Still down 40% over the past year, how high could WiseTech shares recover?

The story of WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares over the last year has been a compelling one. 

Dragged down by artificial intelligence replacement fears, WiseTech shares fell roughly 70% from 12-month highs between July 2025 and March 2026.

However since then, WiseTech shares have rallied, recovering more than 20%. 

This was consistent for many ASX technology shares that were oversold prior to April. 

The AI debate

The big question for WiseTech, and technology shares in general, has been whether artificial intelligence is likely or capable of replacing core services. 

Arguments have been made that as AI continues to rapidly advance. Rathe than simply helping these companies improve efficiency, it might make parts of their businesses obsolete.

A lot of ASX tech firms – especially SaaS (software-as-a-service) – sell tools that automate tasks. The problem now is that AI can now do many of those same tasks, often cheaper and better. 

This is already apparent for tasks like writing code, analysing data, handling customer service, and generating content. 

That overlaps directly with what many software companies charge subscriptions for. 

How does this impact WiseTech shares?

Right now, WiseTech sits right on the line between AI victim and AI winner.

WiseTech sells logistics software (CargoWise) that automates workflows, and it is true that AI is capable of automating workflows. 

CargoWise is effectively the operating system for global logistics, handling customs, compliance, shipping, billing across 180+ countries. 

That creates:

• High switching costs
• Regulatory complexity
• Mission-critical dependency.

In addition to this, unlike some smaller SaaS companies, WiseTech isn’t sitting still – it’s aggressively adopting AI internally.

The company recently cut roughly 2,000 jobs (~30% of workforce) due to AI automation. 

The WiseTech CEO explicitly said manual coding is “over”, and the company is now automating large parts of product development and operations. 

What are experts saying?

Yesterday, the team at Bell Potter provided updated guidance on WiseTech shares, providing a pathway forward through murky tech waters. 

The bottom line: the broker believes that WiseTech shares are cheap, especially in comparison to other tech stocks. 

It has put a buy rating and $78.75 price target on WiseTech shares, which is approximately 73% higher than yesterday’s closing price. 

As The Motley Fool’s Marc Van Dinther reported yesterday, 15 out of 17 analysts (via TradingView) rate WiseTech shares as a buy or strong buy. 

Foolish takeaway 

The core conflict investors need to consider when it comes to WiseTech shares is the bull vs bear case. 

With a negative lens, AI could commoditise parts of WiseTech Global’s software, putting pressure on pricing, margins, and long-term growth.

On the flip side, AI could strengthen WiseTech Global’s dominance by automating complex logistics workflows, lowering costs, and deepening its competitive moat.

The post Still down 40% over the past year, how high could WiseTech shares recover? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.