This ASX dividend share could deliver a return of more than 25% Macquarie says

Shares in Atlas Arteria Ltd (ASX: ALX) hit a 12-month low this week, but the analyst team at Macquarie believes this could be the signal to buy in.

Weak quarterly results

The shares hit a low of $4.20 on Tuesday after the company reported its toll revenue for the quarter had increased by just 0.1%.

The toll road operator was not blaming fuel price increases for the lacklustre performance, but did say it was keeping a watching brief.

As the company said:

Historically, there has been low elasticity in the long term between fuel prices and traffic performance on our roads, which have demonstrated resilience through varied economic conditions. Atlas Arteria will continue to monitor the impacts of fuel costs and concerns created by the disruptions to supply out of the Middle East, noting that the regions in which Atlas Arteria primarily operates have lower exposure to these supply disruptions compared to Australia. In addition, most of our roads have toll regimes which are primarily CPI-linked, noting that any increases in fuel costs and associated impact to inflation will take time to flow through.

One thing working in the company’s favour is its robust dividend yield, which is running at 9.43%, with the company saying previously it was committed to maintaining dividends at 40 cents per share.

Looking into the details of the company’s quarterly report, it said its French APRR Group recorded a 0.9% decrease in traffic compared with the first quarter of 2025.

The company said:

Light vehicle traffic across France has been lower on most of the French toll road network, including before global fuel prices rose sharply worldwide. Conversely, heavy vehicle traffic has been consistently higher across the period. This, together with CPI-linked toll increases implemented from 1 February 2026, supported revenue performance in the period with toll revenue up 1.1%.

A price increase at the company’s Chicago Skyway business supported a 1.8% increase in revenue while traffic increased by 0.1%.

Traffic at the Dulles Greenway business was up 7.6% despite a series of adverse weather events.

Shares looking cheap

Macquarie ran the ruler over the quarterly report, and while it has reduced its share price forecast for Atlas, it still believes there is money to be made.

Macquarie lowered its price target on the stock to $5.02, from $5.43 previously, which, with the dividend yield, would imply a return of 27.7% based on the $4.24 share price when the report was written.

The shares are currently changing hands for $4.23.

Macquarie did warn that currency would become more of a headwind, which could make maintaining the dividend “materially harder”.

Atlas Arteria is valued at $6.1 billion.

The post This ASX dividend share could deliver a return of more than 25% Macquarie says appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why have Atlas Arteria shares hit a 12-month low today?
• Atlas Arteria shares: Q1 2026 toll revenue ticks higher
• How many shares in this high-dividend toll road stock do you need for a $10,000 income stream?
• This ASX dividend stock is now paying out more than 9%
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.