Can the beaten-down CSL share price ever reach $300 again?

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are still drifting lower, with the selling pressure showing little sign of easing.

At the time of writing, the CSL share price is down 0.72% to $128.26. Earlier in the session, it slipped to $127.85, marking a new 9-year low.

That extends what has already been a steep decline. CSL shares are now down close to 50% over the past 12 months, a rapid reversal for a stock that was once among the ASX’s most reliable performers.

Not long ago, CSL traded above $300 in January 2020 and spent much of the following years hovering around that level, holding its place as a market leader until around August 2024.

So, what has changed, and can the share price ever get back there?

A growth engine that has slowed

The main shift has been in growth expectations.

CSL built its premium valuation on consistent earnings expansion, supported by its global leadership in plasma therapies and vaccines. That growth profile has since softened.

Recent periods have pointed to slower momentum, with pressure coming through in parts of the vaccines business and margins.

A policy change in the United States has also raised fresh questions around demand for influenza vaccines, adding another layer of uncertainty.

The valuation reset has been severe

For a long time, CSL sat in a category of its own on the ASX.

It commanded a higher valuation because of its track record. Earnings growth was consistent, and its position in global plasma therapies gave investors confidence in long-term demand.

That positioning has shifted.

The share price is now well below prior highs, reflecting a market that is no longer willing to pay the same premium for that growth profile.

What would need to change?

For CSL shares to move back toward $300, the focus turns to earnings.

The business still holds strong positions in plasma-derived therapies, where demand continues to build over time. That part of the portfolio remains a key long-term driver.

But a sustained recovery in the share price would likely require a return to more consistent earnings growth.

That could come from stronger plasma collections, improved margins, and more stable performance across the vaccines segment.

Without that, it becomes harder to justify a return to the valuation levels seen in previous years.

Foolish takeaway

CSL’s decline reflects a reset in how the market views its growth profile.

The business remains well positioned in key healthcare markets, but the goal posts have moved, and the premium valuation it once commanded has been reduced.

A move back to $300 would likely require a clear lift in earnings momentum and a rebuild in investor confidence.

Until then, the focus remains on whether the current weakness can stabilise and form a base.

The post Can the beaten-down CSL share price ever reach $300 again? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 5 oversold ASX shares to buy before the end of April
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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.