Down 65%, are Cochlear shares a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity?

It is not often you see a high-quality healthcare share like Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) fall this far.

The shares are down around 65% year to date in 2026, with most of that decline happening this month following a trading update.

There is no way to sugar-coat it. The update was weak, guidance was cut, and sentiment has clearly turned negative.

But when I step back from the short-term noise, I think this could be one of those rare moments where a great business becomes available at a much more reasonable price.

What actually went wrong?

The February result already showed things were slowing.

Revenue only grew 1% and underlying net profit fell 9% to $195 million, reflecting a slower-than-expected rollout of its new Nucleus Nexa system and some pressure on margins.

That alone was not ideal, but the bigger issue came with the April trading update.

Management flagged softer-than-expected demand in developed markets, hospital capacity constraints, weaker referral activity, and growing uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.

As a result, FY26 earnings guidance was cut significantly to $290 million to $330 million (from $435 million to $460 million).

That is a big downgrade, and it explains why the share price reacted so sharply.

This is a setback, not a broken business

Even so, I do not think the long-term story has changed.

Cochlear is still the global leader in implantable hearing solutions. It has decades of R&D behind it and continues to invest heavily in new products, with around 13% of revenue going into R&D.

Importantly, demand for its products is not cyclical in the traditional sense. There is a large and growing pool of people with hearing loss, particularly in the adult and ageing population.

Management itself continues to point to a “significant, unmet and addressable clinical need” that underpins long-term growth.

What we are seeing now looks more like a timing issue.

Surgeries are being delayed. Referrals have slowed. Some patients are treating procedures as discretionary in the short term.

None of that suggests demand has disappeared. It suggests it has been pushed out.

The valuation looks very different now

Before looking at valuation, I think it is important to acknowledge what has changed.

Cochlear’s earnings have gone backwards. Earnings per share were $5.98 in FY25, and consensus estimates now point to $4.86 per share in FY26. That is a meaningful decline, and it helps explain why the share price has fallen so sharply.

The market is not overreacting to nothing. It is responding to a real step back in earnings.

But this is where things get interesting. At around $91.00, Cochlear is now trading on less than 19 times FY26 earnings. For a business of this quality, that is not a level we typically see.

Looking further out, consensus forecasts suggest earnings could recover to $5.28 in FY27 and $5.88 in FY28.

So while the near-term picture is weak, the market is already pricing in a lot of that softness.

For me, the key question is whether FY26 represents a temporary dip or a more permanent reset in earnings power.

If it is the former and earnings recover in line with consensus estimates, then today’s valuation could prove to be quite attractive over time.

Why I think this could be an opportunity to buy Cochlear shares

For me, this comes down to a simple question. Has the long-term earnings power of the business permanently declined?

Right now, I do not think there is enough evidence to say that it has.

Cochlear still has market leadership, strong technology, and a clear runway for growth driven by demographics and increasing awareness of hearing loss treatment.

What has changed is short-term execution and near-term demand. That matters for the next 6 to 12 months. But it matters far less over the next 5 to 10 years.

When high-quality companies disappoint, the market often overshoots on the downside. I think that is exactly what is happening here.

Foolish takeaway

This is not a risk-free setup. Cochlear’s earnings could remain under pressure for longer than expected, and sentiment may take time to recover.

But with the shares down 65% and trading at a much lower multiple, I think Cochlear is starting to look like a long-term opportunity rather than a falling knife.

For patient investors willing to look beyond the next year, this could be one of those moments that only shows up once-in-a-decade.

The post Down 65%, are Cochlear shares a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• Which beaten down ASX healthcare stock is a better buy right now: Pro Medicus vs Cochlear shares
• Why Cochlear, Karoon Energy, Origin Energy, and WiseTech shares are falling today
• Down 43% this week, are Cochlear shares now the best bargain buy of the year?
• After falling 43% in a week, are Cochlear shares now a buy?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cochlear. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.