Morgans tips 1 ASX mining share to rip — and 1 to avoid — in 2026

ASX mining shares are significantly lower on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) down 1.9%.

Experts say Australia is already in its next great mining boom due to rising demand for commodities amid the green energy transition.

The war in Iran and the ensuing global fuel crisis are headwinds for mining, but the long-term earnings growth drivers remain in place.

With this in mind, here is one ASX mining share that Morgans expects to rip, and one it expects to dip, in 2026.

Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL)

The Regis Resources share price is $6.95, down 2.7% today.

Over the past 12 months, this ASX 200 gold mining share has increased its valuation by 54.5%.

In the year to date, Regis Resources has lost 9%, but over the past month, it has lifted 4.7%.

Morgans upgraded Regis Resources shares from a hold to buy rating after the miner released its 3Q FY26 report.

Morgans said:

Gold sales of 89.1koz at an AISC of A$2,807 beat our expectations whilst performing in line with company guidance, delivering revenue of A$622m at an average realised price of A$6,977/oz.

RRL continues to build a substantial cash balance, adding an additional A$198m bringing the total to A$1.12bn. Replenished ounces with group MRE exceeding 10% yoy resource growth underpinning future production.

We upgrade to BUY (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in RRL underpinned by attractive immediate term cash generation paired with a structured capital management framework.

Morgans increased its 12-month price target slightly from $10.03 to $10.07 after the report.

This implies an impressive potential 45% upside ahead.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The PLS Group share price is $6.01, up 0.4% today.

Over the past 12 months, this ASX 200 lithium mining share has ripped 300% alongside a sharp rebound in lithium commodity prices.

The PLS Group share price reached an all-time high of $6.17 on Tuesday.

Morgans downgraded PLS shares from a hold to a trim rating after the miner’s 3Q FY26 update.

The broker considers PLS Group the best lithium mining share on the market, but it’s concerned about valuation right now.

Morgans said:

Record production +8% ahead of consensus expectations and costs -13% ahead of consensus expectations highlights PLS’ strong operating leverage. Strong cash build supports growth and potential shareholder returns.

PLS is our preferred lithium exposure, but we see much of the near-term upside priced in and suggest selectively trimming positions.

Morgans kept its 12-month target at $5.40, demonstrating its belief that PLS Group shares are significantly overvalued for the moment.

The post Morgans tips 1 ASX mining share to rip — and 1 to avoid — in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• PLS shares are flying again. Here’s why they’re near record highs
• Red-hot PLS shares: Smart buy or risky move?
• 3 ASX shares upgraded by Morgans to buy ratings
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 top ASX 200 gold stocks brokers say are buys now

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.