CSL shares halved, can analysts be right about a 100% rebound?

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares still haven’t managed to stage a convincing recovery.

The biotech heavyweight has fallen 13% over the past month and is down roughly 50% over the last year. The ASX stock is trading at $124.84 at the time of writing, hovering near its 52-week low.

That raises the obvious question: are CSL shares a buying opportunity, or a value trap investors should avoid?

Sector and company challenges

Healthcare stocks on the ASX have underperformed in 2026, following a widespread sell-off across the sector.

Investor capital has shifted toward energy producers, mining stocks, and more defensive plays, leaving healthcare names like CSL shares out of favour. At the same time, CSL’s own issues have compounded the decline in sentiment.

Previously considered one of the ASX’s most dependable growth companies, CSL has lost some of its shine. Earnings momentum has slowed, and the business has had to navigate a series of disruptions. It experienced softer vaccine demand, an unexpected restructure, and the abrupt departure of its CEO.

Adding to the pressure, recent developments in the US have clouded the outlook further. The removal of the US military’s annual flu vaccination requirement has materially changed expectations for influenza vaccine demand. That’s an important consideration given CSL’s sizable US exposure.

This has heightened concerns that vaccine revenues could weaken, particularly in areas where demand had been supported by mandates.

Core remains strong

Even so, writing off CSL shares entirely may be premature.

The company’s vaccine segment is not its primary earnings driver. Most of CSL’s profits are generated by its plasma therapies arm, CSL Behring.

This division focuses on plasma-derived treatments such as immunoglobulins, albumin, and clotting therapies used to treat rare and chronic conditions. CSL holds a leading global position in these markets, where demand continues to grow due to ageing populations and improved diagnosis rates.

In short, while one part of the business is facing headwinds, its core operations remain structurally sound.

Analyst outlook still optimistic

Market analysts remain broadly positive on the prospects of CSL shares prospects. Data from TradingView shows that 12 out of 18 analysts rate the stock as a buy or strong buy.

The most bullish price target sits at $267.60, suggesting potential upside of more than 100% over the next year. Even the lowest target of $152.35 implies a gain of around 22% from current levels.

Foolish Takeaway

CSL shares are clearly out of favour, and the near-term outlook remains uncertain. Ongoing risks — particularly around vaccine demand and US policy shifts — could continue to weigh on sentiment.

However, the company’s dominant plasma business and long-term growth drivers remain intact. For investors with a longer time horizon, the current weakness could present an opportunity.

The turnaround hasn’t arrived yet, but it may not be as far off as the market fears.

The post CSL shares halved, can analysts be right about a 100% rebound? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.