Down 63%: Should you finally give up on CSL shares?

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have gone from market darling to market disappointment.

On Monday, the biotech giant’s shares crashed 16% and finished at their lowest level in almost a decade. They are now down 63% from their 52-week high.

That is a stunning fall for a company that was once treated as one of the highest-quality shares on the ASX.

So, should investors finally give up on CSL?

What went wrong?

The latest selloff was driven by another disappointing update from the company.

CSL has downgraded its FY 2026 outlook and now expects revenue of around US$15.2 billion and NPATA of US$3.1 billion, both on a constant currency basis and excluding restructuring costs and impairments.

The downgrade reflects several issues. CSL flagged a US immunoglobulin revenue impact of approximately US$300 million due to the normalisation of channel inventory, a US$200 million impact from albumin in China, and a further US$150 million impact from the Middle East conflict, revised HEMGENIX growth, and competition in iron.

This is not a clean downgrade caused by one temporary factor. It is a reminder that CSL is dealing with several problems at once.

Management has also been blunt about the situation. CSL’s interim CEO, Gordon Naylor, said the company’s growth initiatives are working, but that the financial benefits will take longer than previously expected to materialise. He said:

Our growth initiatives are working, but the financial benefits will take longer than previously anticipated to materialise. As a result, we have now revised down our 2026 financial year guidance.

That is the key issue for investors. CSL is not unfixable, but it is taking longer to repair than the market hoped.

The painful reset

The update also included more bad news on impairments.

CSL paid US$11.7 billion to acquire Vifor Pharma in 2022. Unfortunately, this has so far failed to deliver on expectations and has weighed heavily on shareholder value.

The company revealed that it expects to recognise approximately US$5 billion of additional non-cash, pre-tax impairments across FY 2026 and FY 2027. These relate to CSL Vifor intangible assets, including the product portfolio, as well as under-utilised property, plant and equipment.

The company’s own review points to the need for better execution, a simpler operating model, improved supply chain efficiency, and more disciplined capital allocation. It also notes that historical growth expectations have not been delivered and that some investment case assumptions have not eventuated.

That is a very different story from the CSL of old.

For years, investors were happy to pay a premium valuation for CSL shares because the company delivered predictable growth, strong margins, and world-class execution. That premium has now been destroyed.

Are CSL shares cheap?

CSL shares are now trading on around 12 times estimated FY 2027 earnings. That looks too low for a company with its scale, market positions, and long-term healthcare exposure.

But investors should be careful about expecting the old valuation to return.

CSL may once have justified a valuation above 30 times earnings. After this period of missed expectations, downgrades, impairments, and strategic repair work, that seems unlikely any time soon.

A more realistic outcome could be a rerating toward 18 to 20 times earnings if CSL can return to consistent growth and prove that its transformation program is working.

That would still leave room for upside from current levels. But it would require delivery, not just promises.

Should you give up?

I would not give up on CSL shares completely.

The company still has high-quality assets, strong market positions, and exposure to long-term healthcare demand. Its current valuation also appears to reflect a lot of bad news.

But investors need to reset their expectations. This is no longer the CSL of old. It is a turnaround story inside a high-quality healthcare company.

For patient investors, I think CSL shares are worth holding. But from here, the company needs to earn back trust one result at a time.

The post Down 63%: Should you finally give up on CSL shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.