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Why it could be time to move on from this booming ASX energy stock

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Copal miner standing in front of coal.

It’s been a red hot 2026 for ASX energy stock New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC). 

New Hope shares climbed a further 3% yesterday, and are now up 50% over the last 12 months. 

New Hope is an Australian thermal coal miner. It has two operating mines: the 100%-owned New Acland coal mine in the Darling Downs, Queensland and its 80%-owned Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales.

Another great week 

On Monday, this ASX energy stock released a quarterly report.

It reported: 

  • Group ROM coal production: 4.26Mt, up 5.0% on the previous quarter
  • Saleable coal production: 3.01Mt, up 8.7% quarter-on-quarter
  • Total coal sales: 3.20Mt, a 10.4% quarterly lift
  • Average realised sales price: $140.7/t, up 1.2% from prior quarter
  • Underlying EBITDA: $130.1 million, up 21.7% from the previous quarter
  • Available cash: $571.6 million at quarter end. 

Investors have been reacting positively to these results. This ASX energy stock is up 6% across two days of trading this week. 

Bell Potter weighs in 

Following these results, the team at Bell Potter issued an updated report on this ASX energy stock. 

The broker noted FY26 revised guidance was reiterated and group production and sales are tracking towards the upper end of the ranges provided. 

Coal production was 3.0 million tonnes, above Bell Potter’s forecast of 2.7 million tonnes.

The broker also said New Hope strengthened its balance sheet through a $300 million refinancing, while noting that any diesel cost increases from Middle East tensions could potentially be offset by stronger coal prices and demand.

NHC’s diesel providers have reassured supply in the short term. Around 20% of NHC’s overall cost base is diesel price related. In the event of a prolonged Middle East conflict, diesel cost impacts could be more than offset by stronger thermal coal demand and prices as coal is substituted for disrupted LNG supply.

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter updated its assumptions for coal prices and the Australian dollar, leading to earnings forecast changes:

  • FY26 earnings forecast cut by 17%
  • FY27 forecast raised by 19%
  • FY28 forecast raised by 12%. 

Limited upside 

Following recent share price growth, the team at Bell Potter now sees this ASX energy stock as a hold. 

The broker now has a $5 price target on New Hope shares, which indicates a 9% downside from the current share price of $5.51. 

NHC’s low-cost operations will continue to underpin margins through the coal price cycle, funding capital expenditure commitments and supporting shareholder returns. Beyond ramp-up of New Acland Stage 3, we see a limited organic production growth pipeline and believe NHC may participate in industry consolidation.

The post Why it could be time to move on from this booming ASX energy stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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