AGL Energy shares tumble 19% from their peak: Buy, sell or hold?

AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) shares are trading in the red again on Wednesday morning. At the time of writing the shares are down around 1% to $8.62 a piece.

The latest decline means the energy provider’s shares have now tumbled 19% from their peak. The share price is also down 8% for the year-to-date and 16% lower than this time last year.

It’s been a relatively volatile ride for AGL shares over the past year, with several surges and troughs which saw the shares swing anywhere between $8.03 to $10.60.

What caused the 19% selloff?

In February, AGL reported flat underlying EBITDA and a 6% decline in underlying net profit after tax. 

But investors were excited by the company’s upgraded FY26 guidance figures.  As part of the announcement, AGL forecast a full-year underlying EBITDA of $2.02 billion to $2.18 billion. Previously, the range was $1.92 billion to $2.22 billion.

Its underlying net profit guidance was also tightened to $580 million to $680 million, from a much wider range of $500 million to $700 million.

Within a few days, AGL shares had surged nearly 20%. 

But as quick as the share price climbed, it tumbled 16% by mid-March. 

Since then, the shares have zig zagged. Slumping sentiment, lower wholesale electricity prices and battery and grid uncertainty have been among AGL’s headwinds. 

Meanwhile, news of a binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL), and updated guidance figures helped act as tailwinds.

AGL is now guiding underlying EBITDA between $2.06 billion and $2.18 billion, and underlying NPAT between $610 million and $680 million for FY26.

Now the question is, what can we expect next from AGL Energy shares?

Are AGL Energy shares a buy, sell or hold?

Analyst outlook for AGL Energy shares over the next 12 months is incredibly mixed.

TradingView data shows that five out of eight analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. Another two rate AGL Energy shares as a hold and one has a strong sell rating.

Over on Market Index, three brokers are split between a buy, hold and sell stance.

However, consensus is still for an upside ahead.

The average $11.02 target price implies a $28% upside at the time of writing. Although some think the shares could slump 8% to $9.28 and others think it could rocket 48% higher to $12.76.

Shaw and Partners is one broker which currently rates the energy giant as a hold. It said that while there are positives, it is concerned about the challenges that AGL energy faces when it comes to asset transitions and evolving policy settings. The broker adds that earnings stability has improved, but execution risk still remains.

Elsewhere, Ord Minnett has a buy rating on AGL. The broker thinks the market underappreciates the pace and scale of AGL’s transition strategy.

The post AGL Energy shares tumble 19% from their peak: Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.