Could this unloved ASX 200 dividend share be a better buy than it looks?

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) has not been the market’s favourite ASX 200 dividend share in 2026.

Its shares are down 35% since the start of the year.

That is understandable. Big-ticket retail has been under pressure, consumers have been cautious, and investors have had plenty of other dividend shares to choose from.

But I think Harvey Norman could be a better buy than it looks at first glance.

At the current share price of $4.54, the stock offers a combination of income, value, and recovery potential that could appeal to patient investors.

A large fully franked yield

The first attraction is the dividend. According to CommSec, the consensus estimate is for Harvey Norman to pay dividends per share of 31 cents in FY26 and 31 cents again in FY27.

Based on the current share price, that represents a forward dividend yield of approximately 6.8%.

That is a large yield, and it is expected to be fully franked.

For Australian income investors, franking credits can make a meaningful difference to the after-tax return, depending on personal circumstances.

Of course, dividends are not guaranteed. Harvey Norman is exposed to the consumer cycle, and earnings can move around when shoppers pull back on furniture, appliances, electronics, and homewares.

But the forecast income is a clear reason I think the stock deserves attention.

The valuation looks reasonable

The second attraction is valuation. CommSec’s consensus estimates are for earnings per share of 38.5 cents in FY26 and 39 cents in FY27.

At $4.54, that puts Harvey Norman on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 12 times.

That does not scream deep bargain on its own, but I think it looks reasonable for a business with a well-known brand, global operations, and a large property portfolio.

The property side of Harvey Norman is important. This is not just a retailer renting every store and hoping for strong sales. The company has meaningful property backing, which gives the investment case another layer.

A consumer recovery could help

The third reason I think Harvey Norman is interesting is the potential for better conditions ahead.

When households feel stretched, big-ticket purchases are easy to delay. A new lounge, fridge, computer, or bedroom suite can wait.

But delayed demand does not disappear forever. If interest rates ease, housing turnover improves, or consumer confidence lifts, Harvey Norman could benefit from a better retail backdrop.

The company does not need the economy to boom for sentiment to improve. Even a shift from very cautious to slightly more confident could help.

Foolish takeaway

Harvey Norman is not a fashionable ASX 200 dividend share right now, and that may be part of the opportunity.

The yield is attractive, the valuation looks undemanding, and the business has more going for it than the current share price may suggest.

This is still a cyclical retailer, so patience is required. But for investors looking for fully franked income with recovery potential, I think Harvey Norman is worth a closer look.

The post Could this unloved ASX 200 dividend share be a better buy than it looks? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.