James Hardie shares rebound 19%: Is it time to buy?

James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) shares ended around 3% higher on Thursday afternoon. When the bell rang on the ASX the shares were trading at $30.95 a piece.

The latest jump means the share price has now rebounded around 19% from a six-month dip in mid-May.

The increase has also pushed the shares around just under 1% higher for the year-to-date, but they’re still around 12% lower than this time last year.

Why are James Hardie shares rebounding?

The global fibre cement product manufacturer’s share price dipped to just $26.02 on the 18th of May after the company as dwindling investor sentiment caused many to shy away from the stock.

But shortly after, James Hardie shares turned and started climbing higher. 

It looks like the main trigger was James Hardie’s fourth-quarter FY26 results, which it posted to the ASX ahead of the market open on Wednesday last week.

The result was mixed, with the company revealing a 25% year-on-year increase in net sales driven by additional sales from James Hardie’s AZEK acquisition, a US-based outdoor building products company.

Excluding that acquisition, organic net sales declined by 2% from FY25. And on the bottom line, the company reported a 75% year-on-year decline in NPAT.

Meanwhile, adjusted EBITDA was up 17% year-on-year, coming in above previous guidance figures.

It looks like the results were stronger than many expected, and the stabilised earnings result seems to have reignited investor confidence.

Buyers have been snapping up James Hardie shares in the company ever since the announcement. 

This is a sharp turnaround from earlier this year when concerns about the AZEK acquisition, company demand and weaker earnings guidance saw investors sell up.

Can they keep climbing higher?

Analysts seem to think so.

TradingView data shows that 17 out of 22 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. The average $36.54 target price implies a potential 18% upside at the time of writing. And the $43.07 maximum target price suggests the shares could increase another 39% over the next 12 months.

Morgan Stanley is one broker with a buy rating on the James Hardie shares. 

Morgans also has a buy rating and recently commented that it seems the shares as undervalued at current levels. The broker said that market conditions remain subdued, with lower builder activity and affordability pressures. 

Morgans said that FY26 could be “chalked up” as a transformational but financially dilutive year. Meanwhile, FY27 is expected to be about margin and cash-recovery driven by synergies rather than a housing market improvement.

Macquarie said James Hardie was expecting soft, but stabilising conditions in the US which was a negative, and downgraded their price target on the company from $41.10 to $39.60, although this is still well above the average target price on TradingView.

The post James Hardie shares rebound 19%: Is it time to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.