How these 3 headwinds could sink CBA shares in 2026

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are sinking today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock closed yesterday trading for $164.76. In early afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are changing hands for $162.17, down 1.6%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 1.5% at this same time amid investor concerns over the renewed military attacks in the Middle East.

Taking a step back, CBA shares have slumped 10.8% since this time last year, materially underperforming the 1.4% 12-month gains posted by the benchmark index.

Though we shouldn’t dismiss the two fully-franked dividends CommBank has paid out to eligible stockholders over this time. CBA currently trades on a 3.1% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.

Looking ahead, Medallion Financial Group’s Philippe Bui forecasts ongoing difficulties for Australia’s biggest bank over the coming months (courtesy of The Bull).

Here’s why.

Time to sell CBA shares?

“Australia’s largest bank carries a premium valuation,” Bui said.

Citing the three headwinds that could put ongoing pressure on the ASX 200 bank stock, Bui noted, “Slowing credit growth, sticky inflation and proposed property tax changes are headwinds for this mortgage heavy business.”

Summarising his sell recommendation on CBA shares, Bui concluded:

Sentiment took a material hit recently when the stock posted its largest single-day decline of about 10% since listing in 1991 following a disappointing trading update. Earnings momentum is fading and the valuation is still trading at a significant premium to peers.

As for that significant premium, CBA stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 26 times.

As for the other big four Aussie banks, Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares trade on a P/E ratio of around 17 times; ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares trade on a P/E ratio of around 17 times; and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares also trade on a P/E ratio of around 17 times.

A more bullish take on the ASX 200 bank stock

Red Leaf Securities’ John Athanasiou came out with a more bullish assessment on Australia’s biggest bank stock on The Bull.

Explaining his hold recommendation on CBA shares, Athanasiou said:

CBA remains the highest quality franchise in Australian banking, supported by its dominant deposit base, strong digital ecosystem and industry leading profitability.

Earnings remain resilient, but growth is moderating as mortgage competition intensifies and credit expansion normalises. Credit quality is stable and dividends remain highly reliable, reinforcing its defensive appeal.

But Athanasiou also has concerns over CBA valuation relative to its peers. He noted:

However, the key issue is valuation, with the stock trading at a significant premium to domestic and global peers. Much of the quality and stability is already priced in, leaving limited upside without a material macro or earnings surprise to the upside.

The post How these 3 headwinds could sink CBA shares in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How low could CBA shares go?
• How to value the CBA share price
• How combining superannuation and ASX shares can set you up for retirement better than property
• Why the RBA’s next move could be the most important event for ASX shares in 2026
• Is this ASX financials stock a better buy than CBA shares?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.