Up 58% in a year, are BHP shares still a good buy today?

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $60.80. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $60.92 apiece, up 1.4%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.6% at this time.

Today’s outperformance is par for the course for Australia’s biggest miner and biggest stock on the ASX by market cap.

Indeed, BHP shares have rocketed 58.3% over the past 12 months, smashing the 0.8% one-year gains posted by the ASX 200.

And that’s not including the two fully-franked dividends the miner paid to eligible stockholders over this period. BHP stock currently trades on a fully-franked 3.2% trailing dividend yield.

Part of that outperformance has been driven by BHP’s own mining successes. And part of it has been fuelled by a resilient iron ore price alongside surging copper prices. Trading for US$13,615 today, the copper price is up 39% in a year.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

With those outsized gains already in the bag, is the ASX mining stock still a good buy today?

BHP shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

Morgans’ Damien Nguyen recently ran his slide rule over BHP (courtesy of The Bull).

“The global miner offers broad diversification across iron ore, copper and potash, underpinned by a fortress balance sheet and a disciplined approach to capital returns,” he said.

“Copper provides meaningful long-term exposure to the global electrification and energy transition theme, while iron ore remains the dominant near term earnings driver,” Nguyen added.

Explaining his hold recommendation on BHP shares, Nguyen concluded:

However, the macro backdrop remains uncertain, with Chinese steel demand facing structural headwinds and global growth indicators sending mixed signals. The valuation at current levels appears broadly fair, with commodity price assumptions already reflecting a reasonable medium-term outlook.

BHP remains a core holding for resource-oriented portfolios, but with limited near-term re-rating catalysts, we retain a hold recommendation.

A more bearish take on the Aussie mining giant

Alto Capital’s Tony Locantro also dug into the outlook for BHP shares this week on The Bull.

“BHP is Australia’s largest diversified mining company, with significant exposure to iron ore, copper and metallurgical coal,” he said.

Commenting on the growing importance of copper for BHP’s earnings, Locantro noted:

The company delivered a strong first half result in fiscal year 2026, reporting underlying EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation] of $US15.5 billion, up 25% on the prior corresponding period. A major milestone was copper contributing 51% of group EBITDA for the first time.

But with the BHP share price having leapt more than 58% in a year, not including dividends, Locantro issued a sell recommendation for the ASX 200 miner.

He noted:

While the long-term outlook for copper remains attractive, investor enthusiasm surrounding electrification and AI-related demand has contributed to a strong share price performance.

In our view, the strong operational result, elevated expectations and risk-reward balance support taking some profits.

The post Up 58% in a year, are BHP shares still a good buy today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.