Down 40%+! 2 cheap ASX shares I’d buy before the recovery becomes obvious

Consumer shares can be hard to own when households are under pressure.

Sales growth can slow, margins can tighten, and investors often become impatient very quickly. But I think this is the type of environment where patient investors can start looking for opportunities before confidence improves.

Two cheap ASX shares I would consider buying before the next consumer recovery becomes more obvious are named in this article.

Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

Accent Group has been through a painful period, with its share price down around 66% from its high. I think that weakness has created a more interesting setup.

The company owns a large portfolio of footwear and lifestyle banners, including The Athlete’s Foot, Platypus, Hype DC, Nude Lucy, Skechers, and Stylerunner. That gives it exposure to several different customer groups, from performance footwear to streetwear, casual shoes, and youth fashion.

The attraction for me is that footwear is a repeat-purchase category. Customers may delay purchases when budgets are tight, but shoes still wear out, trends change, kids grow, and athletes keep needing product.

I also think the group has more levers than a smaller retailer.

It can adjust store formats, improve ranges, negotiate with landlords, grow stronger brands, and use its scale with suppliers. Its Sports Direct rollout could also add a different growth angle if management executes well.

This is still a higher-risk retail recovery story. Consumer demand could stay weak for longer, and retail turnarounds rarely move in a smooth line.

But I think the market may already be pricing in a very cautious outlook. If trading stabilises and management starts to rebuild earnings, Accent could offer meaningful upside from today’s depressed levels.

Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK)

Nick Scali is another cheap ASX share I would consider before the mood improves. Its shares are down over 40% from their high.

Furniture retail is closely tied to confidence, housing activity, renovation spending, and household budgets. When consumers feel stretched, a new sofa or dining table can be delayed.

That is why the stock can come under pressure during tougher retail conditions.

But I think Nick Scali has a strong long-term position. It has built a premium furniture brand with good margins, a disciplined store model, and a reputation for managing the cycle better than many retailers.

The UK opportunity also makes the story more interesting. Offshore expansion adds execution risk, but it gives the business another way to grow beyond the Australian market.

I like companies that can come through a softer period with their brand still intact and their balance sheet strong enough to keep investing. Nick Scali fits that description for me.

If interest rates ease in 2027, housing turnover improves, or consumers become more willing to spend on the home again, I think the earnings outlook could look better than it does today.

Foolish Takeaway

Consumer recovery stories can feel uncomfortable because the good news is often missing at the point of purchase.

That is part of the appeal. By the time shoppers feel confident again, and earnings momentum is obvious, the share prices may already have moved. I would rather look at businesses with strong brands, repeat demand, and management teams that can keep improving while conditions are difficult.

Accent and Nick Scali both carry risk, but I think they are worth considering before the next consumer upswing becomes clear.

The post Down 40%+! 2 cheap ASX shares I’d buy before the recovery becomes obvious appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and Nick Scali. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.