Down almost 75%, are WiseTech shares really cheap?

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares have been smashed.

The logistics software company is trading around $31.39, down almost 75% from its 52-week high of $121.31.

That is a huge fall for a company that was once one of the ASX’s most highly rated technology shares. It also raises a fair question: has the market gone too far?

I think it has.

The valuation has changed dramatically

WiseTech was once priced for a lot of success.

That made the shares vulnerable when sentiment turned. A high-growth stock can fall hard when investors become more cautious, and WiseTech has certainly felt that pressure.

But the current valuation now looks really interesting to me.

According to CommSec, consensus estimates are for earnings per share of 92.8 cents in FY26, $1.45 in FY27, and $2.19 in FY28.

At the current share price, that puts WiseTech on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 34 times FY26 earnings, 22 times FY27 earnings, and just over 14 times FY28 earnings.

That is the part that catches my attention.

A FY26 multiple in the 30s still requires growth. But if WiseTech gets anywhere near the FY28 consensus forecast, the valuation starts to look unusually low for a global software business with its market position.

A powerful role in global trade

The reason I still like WiseTech is the problem it solves.

Global trade is full of friction. Goods move through ports, warehouses, customs systems, carriers, freight forwarders, importers, exporters, and regulators. Every shipment can involve documents, time zones, compliance checks, pricing, tracking, and a long chain of handovers.

That is exactly the kind of environment where good software can become valuable.

WiseTech’s CargoWise platform helps logistics companies run more of that complexity through one system. The more deeply software is embedded in daily operations, the harder it can become to replace.

I also like the ambition of the company. WiseTech wants to be the operating system for global trade and logistics. That is a big goal, but it is also the kind of market where scale, product depth, compliance capability, and integration can matter enormously.

The company says it serves more than 22,000 logistics companies and other industry participants across 193 countries. It also notes that with the acquisition of e2open, its network has expanded to more than 500,000 connected enterprises across manufacturing, logistics, channels, and distribution.

That gives the business a large base from which to keep building.

What about the founder allegations?

There are also external matters investors will be aware of.

WiseTech recently responded to media commentary alleging an investigation into founder and Executive Chair Richard White, reportedly in a personal capacity. The company said there was no suggestion in the media commentary of an investigation into WiseTech. It also said it was not aware of any investigation as outlined in the article, and that Mr White had denied any involvement in or with human trafficking.

Those headlines are a concern and investors should not ignore governance or reputation risk.

But I think the key investment question remains the business itself. WiseTech’s customers, products, market position, and growth outlook are what should drive long-term value. If the company continues to execute, expand its platform, and grow earnings, I think the current share price could end up looking far too cheap.

Foolish takeaway

A share price fall of almost 75% can make investors nervous, and understandably so.

But WiseTech still operates in a large, complex, and increasingly digital market. Its software is used inside the daily machinery of global logistics, and consensus forecasts suggest earnings could grow strongly over the next few years.

There are plenty of risks to consider. Execution, acquisitions, valuation, governance, and market confidence all need watching. Even so, I think the current WiseTech share price offers patient investors a very attractive entry point.

For a business with this kind of global software opportunity, WiseTech shares look cheap to me.

The post Down almost 75%, are WiseTech shares really cheap? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.