Why this fundie is overweight CSL and underweight CBA shares

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are down 0.5% to $161.82, while CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) is down 1% to $116.48 on Friday.

In a newsletter this week, Blackwattle Large Cap Quality Fund portfolio managers, Joe Koh and Elan Miller, explain why they are underweight on the market’s largest ASX 200 bank share and overweight on the market’s biggest healthcare share.

If you’re unfamiliar with the lingo, underweight and overweight compare a fund manager’s holding in an ASX stock to its weighting in the benchmark index.

If a fund manager is overweight a stock, they hold a larger proportion of that stock than the benchmark index does.

The Large Cap Quality Fund aims to outperform the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index (ASX: XJOA), after fees, over the long term.

CBA shares

CBA shares represents 10.2% of the ASX 200 Accumulation Index’s market capitalisation.

Koh and Miller said they are underweight CBA shares, and this helped the fund outperform the market in May.

They commented:

CBA provided a Q3 update, which saw its cash earnings narrowly miss consensus estimates by 1%, notwithstanding stable net interest margins and robust home lending growth of 7.1% and business lending growth of +12.5%, year-on-year.

The small earnings disappointment, combined with (in our view) expensive valuation and uncertainty around housing due to negative gearing tax changes, saw CBA’s shares underperform the S&P/ASX 200 index in May.

The night before CBA’s update, the Federal Government proposed a raft of tax changes in the 2026-27 Budget.

CBA shares experienced their biggest daily fall ever, dropping 10.2% and descending to No. 2 in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

Koh and Miller said the Federal Budget marked “the biggest changes to the tax system since the introduction of the GST”.

The changes include replacing the 50% capital gains tax (CGT) discount for assets held longer than 12 months with a cost base inflation indexation method and a minimum 30% CGT rate; and limiting negative gearing to new builds, effective 1 July next year.

Koh and Miller expect this to adversely affect ASX 200 bank shares.

… we anticipate slower credit growth moving forward, as well as increased risk of bad and doubtful debts, given that individuals are already feeling the impact of the RBA’s rate hikes, higher fuel prices, and increased inflation.

We believe the Budget will place increased pressure on the banks’ operating margins, increasing the risk of earnings downgrades.

The managers pointed out:

Australian home loans comprise about 63% of CBA’s total loan book, of which about one third is to investors.

CBA shares are up 0.4% in the calendar year to date (YTD) compared to a 0.3% rise for the ASX 200.

CSL shares

ASX 200 healthcare shares appear to be staging a comeback after a horror 12 months amid many industry challenges.

The S&P/ASX 200 Health Care Index (ASX: XHJ) appears to have hit a pivot point on 3 June when it touched a 9-year low.

At that stage, ASX 200 healthcare shares had fallen by more than 40% over 12 months.

Since then, healthcare shares have risen 15% as value investors return to the sector, hunting bargains.

CSL shares have been a clear target, lifting 26% since 3 June.

The CSL share price commenced a downward spiral in early FY25 amid far bigger problems than sector weakness.

Koh and Miller said CSL downgraded its earnings forecast again in May after previously reaffirming guidance when the then-CEO resigned.

The managers said:

CSL now expects FY26 revenue to be around $15.2 billion (market expectations were $15.8bn) and NPATA (excluding restructuring costs and impairments) to be around $3.1 billion (market expectations were $3.35bn), both on a constant currency basis.

CSL also intends to recognise approximately $5 billion of non-cash, pre-tax impairments across FY26 and FY27, in addition to those
announced at the FY26 half-year results.

The market continues to be wary of CSL, as the new CEO is yet to be named and the competitive environment remains difficult.

Despite this, Koh and Miller have faith that this former ASX 200 blue-chip company can pull itself out of the mud.

While previously underweight this stock, the Fund has recently moved to a small overweight position given the stock’s
now more attractive valuation, which sits at a substantial discount to the ASX 200.

CSL shares are down 32% YTD and make up 2.1% of the ASX 200 Accumulation Index.

The post Why this fundie is overweight CSL and underweight CBA shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.