Should I buy, hold, or sell CBA shares in July?

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares remain one of the most widely held investments on the ASX.

The bank last traded around $161.14, which places it around the middle of its 52-week range of $146.98 to $185.59. That means investors are currently looking at a share price that is below recent highs, but still far from distressed levels.

So the question is simple: should investors buy, hold, or sell CBA shares in July?

My view is that CBA is a buy.

Why I still like CBA

CBA continues to stand out as the highest-quality bank in Australia, in my view.

It has a dominant retail franchise, a very large and stable deposit base, and a strong digital banking platform that supports customer retention and efficiency. These are not new advantages, but they are the kind that tend to compound over long periods.

Banking is a competitive industry, but scale and trust still matter. I think CBA has both in abundance.

Even in a more uncertain economic environment, customers still need mortgages, transaction accounts, savings products, credit cards, and business banking services. CBA sits at the centre of that system.

Earnings and valuation

According to CommSec consensus estimates, CBA is expected to generate earnings per share of $6.54 in FY26 and $6.72 in FY27.

Based on the current share price of $161.14, that puts the bank on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 25 times FY26 earnings and 24 times FY27 earnings.

That is not a cheap valuation. However, I think it is important to separate valuation from quality. CBA consistently trades at a premium because investors are willing to pay for stability, profitability, and lower risk compared to other banks.

In that context, I think the valuation is justified rather than extreme.

Income appeal

CBA also remains attractive for income-focused investors.

While its dividend yield is not the highest in the banking sector, CBA’s dividends are typically supported by strong earnings and a conservative approach to capital management.

That combination of income and safety is a key reason many investors continue to hold the stock even after strong share price performance in recent years.

Key risks

No investment is without risk, and CBA is no exception.

The biggest risks remain around housing market conditions, credit quality, regulatory pressure, and the broader economic cycle. If unemployment were to rise significantly or property prices were to weaken materially, bank earnings would likely come under pressure.

There is also the risk that investors are already paying a premium for quality, which could limit near-term capital upside.

Foolish takeaway

I think CBA shares are a buy in July.

The valuation is not cheap, but I think it is fair for the quality of the business. CBA remains the dominant banking franchise in Australia, with strong earnings power, a reliable deposit base, and a long track record of navigating different economic cycles.

For long-term investors, I think it remains one of the most dependable ASX shares to own.

The post Should I buy, hold, or sell CBA shares in July? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.