BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have been one of the stronger blue-chip performers over the past year.
That’s great for shareholders. But after this big move higher, is the mining giant still worth buying?
I think the answer is yes, but the case is very different from a year ago.
The easy bargain has passed
BHP shares are trading around $58.71, up almost 50% over the past 12 months.
That is a huge move for a company of this size. Investors who bought near the lows have already done very well.
So, I would not call BHP a bargain today in the same way it was when the market was more pessimistic. But I still think the shares offer reasonable value.
According to CommSec consensus estimates, BHP is expected to generate earnings per share of $3.56 in FY26 and $3.77 in FY27.
Based on the current share price, that puts the stock on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 16.5 times FY26 earnings and 15.6 times FY27 earnings.
That does not look demanding to me for a world-class resources business with long-life assets and exposure to commodities that could remain important for decades.
The dividend profile is also attractive. CommSec estimates dividends per share of $2.10 in FY26 and $2.06 in FY27, implying forward dividend yields of around 3.6% and 3.5%.
Why I still like BHP shares
The main reason I would still buy BHP is that the company is evolving.
Iron ore remains a major part of the business, and it will likely continue driving a large share of earnings for some time. But I think the long-term investment case is becoming broader.
Copper is the key one for me. The world is likely to need more copper for electricity networks, data centres, renewable energy, electric vehicles, industrial development, and general infrastructure. It is difficult to see how many of those trends grow without significantly more copper supply.
BHP already has strong copper exposure, and I think that part of the business could become increasingly important over the next decade.
The company is also expanding into potash through its Jansen project in Canada. That adds another long-term growth option tied to food production and agricultural productivity.
Mining projects can be expensive, slow, and difficult. Capital discipline still needs watching. But I like that BHP is positioning itself beyond just the next iron ore cycle.
Why resources exposure can help
The past year is a good reminder of why resources exposure can play a role in a diversified ASX portfolio.
Since July 2025, the S&P/ASX 200 Resources index (ASX: XJR) is up 38%, while the broader ASX 200 is up just 2.8%.
That gap is significant.
Resources shares can be volatile, and they often move for reasons outside a company’s control, including commodity prices, China demand, currency moves, and global growth expectations.
But that is also why they can add something different to a portfolio.
When resources are performing well, they can provide a source of returns that may look very different from banks, supermarkets, healthcare shares, or technology companies.
Foolish takeaway
I do not think it is too late to buy BHP shares.
The easy bargain has passed, and investors today are paying a much higher price than they were a year ago.
Even so, the valuation still looks reasonable to me, the forecast dividend yield is solid, and the company has exposure to commodities that could become more valuable over the next decade.
The post Up almost 50%, is it too late to buy BHP shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.