Telstra shares hit fresh 52-week low: What’s next for the ASX 200 telco stock?

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares tumbled further into the red on Thursday.

At the close of the ASX on Thursday afternoon, the ASX telco stock had tumbled around 1% and ended the day at an annual low of just $4.71 a piece.

The shares are now down over 6% since the company posted its FY26 update last week, and have now shed around 16% of their value from a 10-year high of $5.55 recorded in mid-May.

For the year to date, Telstra shares are down around 4%.

What pushed Telstra shares to a fresh low this week?

It looks like the telco’s FY26 results announcement last week was the catalyst. 

The company posted a 0.8% decline in revenue, a 4.9% increase in NPAT, and a 4% increase in EBITDA.

Telstra also posted a final dividend of 10.5 cents per share with 90.48% franking, up 10.5% from the 9.5 cents with 100% franking paid in FY25.

The company also announced a further on-market share buyback of up to $1 billion. Telstra completed its $1.25 billion on-market share buyback in June. 

In FY 2027, Telstra expects continued underlying EBITDA growth with an earnings guidance range between $8.5 billion and $8.8 billion.

It looks like the results were a miss versus expectations, and investors weren’t too thrilled. They’ve continued taking their gains off the table following a huge rally earlier this year.

So, what’s next?

Here’s what the experts have to say.

Here’s the outlook for Telstra shares over the next 12 months

It looks like analysts and brokers are reserved about the outlook for the telco stock following its results.

Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a hold rating on the shares. But the $5.06 average target price now implies around an 8% upside at the time of writing.

Similarly, on TradingView, the majority of analysts also have a hold rating on Telstra shares. The average $5 target price implies around a potential 7% upside at the time of writing. But the range between the minimum and maximum is quite large. Some think the shares could fall another 10% to $4.20, and others think the shares could jump 17% higher to $5.50 a piece, over the next 12 months.

Morgans confirmed its hold rating and $5 target price on Telstra shares following the announcement. The broker said the result and FY27 guidance are largely as expected, with FY26 itself coming in at the middle-to-top end of guidance.

Bell Potter agrees that the Telstra result is largely in line with expectations, although total income and NPAT were softer than forecasts. The broker has a hold rating but lowered its target price to $4.80.

The post Telstra shares hit fresh 52-week low: What’s next for the ASX 200 telco stock? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.